[Ninong]

Gene,

It's not just Pat Robertson who says that Dubya was chosen by God. He says that himself. He has said it in private conversations with his cabinet members and he once said it in a public speech to a group of right-wing fundamentalist Christians.

Commerce Secretary Don Evans was quoted in a USA Today article back on April 2, 2003:

Bush believes he was called by God to lead the nation at this time, says Commerce Secretary Don Evans, a close friend who talks with Bush every day. His history degree from Yale makes him mindful of the importance of the moment.

"He knows that we're all here to serve a calling greater than self," Evans says. "That's what he's committed his life to do. He understands that he is the one person in the country, in this case really the one person in the world, who has a responsibility to protect and defend freedom."

Karl Rove wisely advised Dubya to stop saying that he was chosen by God to lead this "crusade." "Never use the word 'crusade' in public again," Karl scolded him. From now on you must be "resolute" in this "struggle for freedom" against the "evildoers who hate our freedom." Got it?

[Ninong]

...So we might as well dig it up and see where things stand today.

Back in March 2005, I predicted we would see $60/bbl oil by summer (2005). We did.

Back in early August 2005, I predicted we would see a peak in gas prices between $3.30-$3.75/gal. We did.

Back in early August 2005, I predicted oil would top out around $70/bbl and then fall back to the high 50's to low 60's. It did.

Back in March 2005, I predicted oil would hit $60/bbl in the summer of 2005 (it did) and $75/bbl in the summer of 2006. Well, it's not summer yet but oil is at $71/bbl right now!

Back in August 2005, when gold was $420/oz, I predicted that if gold could break out above $455/oz, it would take off. It did. It topped $600/oz two or three times this past week and it's at $600/oz right now! I believe I mentioned somewhere that gold will hit $1000/oz sometime in the next few years. I stand by that prediction with the slight revision that it will spike upwards the day after we attack Iran. (Our attacks are always at night.)

I also predicted that oil would hit $100/bbl sometime in the next 3-5 years. That would be 2-4 years from today. I stand by that prediction with a slight revision. Oil will hit $100/bbl the day after we attack Iran. It could hit $85/bbl if the U.N. applies sanctions against Iran and Iran retaliates by withholding its oil from the world market.

So, anybody else have any predictions they would like to share?

[schrocat]

I predict you will have 13,000 posts by mid June.

I also predict K Harris will lose (a nail chewing squeaker), and Bush will run for a 3rd term after the SC rules the 22nd amendment is unconstitutional.

Koolaid will release a new flavor, Mango McCain...unfortunately nobody will buy it.

[zhenya]

Man, I forgot about this thread...but was promptly reminded by the rising prices of gasoline again. I'm not a beting man, Ninong, but I have to agree with schrocat that sometime in June you'll hit 13K posts...

Originally Posted by Ninong

Karl Rove wisely advised Dubya to stop saying that he was chosen by God to lead this "crusade." "Never use the word 'crusade' in public again," Karl scolded him. From now on you must be "resolute" in this "struggle for freedom" against the "evildoers who hate our freedom." Got it?

Hmmm, I wonder if he still listens to Karl... Oh, and I still think we should all look into geting some hay ready, or oats...

[Ninong]

Crude oil is at $71.27/bbl and gold is at $605.10/oz as of this minute. (Click the links in my Post #42 above for live updates.)

This is what I call the Admadinejah-Fox News factor. The more Admadinejah opens his mouth to say anything and the more hawks who appear on Fox News saying that we should not take the nuclear option off the table, the higher the price of oil and gold.



P.S. -- Just in time for the summer driving season, too. Look for $3.50/gal gasoline by July.

[Ninong]

Right now crude oil is at $71.50/bbl and gold is around the $608/oz mark. That's an indication that the market thinks there is at least a 50-50 chance of a major disruption in the world's supply of oil before the end of the year.

If oil tops $80/bbl, that means the market thinks we're about to attack Iran.

[Ninong]

Not much change in oil in the past hour, it's at $71.65/bbl right now, but gold is above $612/oz. The market is pricing in the probability of political instability and a disruption of the world's oil supply in the foreseeable future.

[Ninong]

Gold is at $620/oz and light sweet crude is at $73/bbl. Believe it or not, the stock market is in rally mode right now in spite of oil.

[schrocat]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Gold is at $620/oz and light sweet crude is at $73/bbl. Believe it or not, the stock market is in rally mode right now in spite of oil.

irrational exuberance...

I saw that in a sig once.

[Ninong]

"Irrational exuberance" was Greenspan's phrase to describe the NASDAQ when it was on it way up back in the late 1990's. If I remember correctly, he said that shortly after it crossed 3000, long before it topped out around 5100. Even with recent strong gains, the NASDAQ is still less than half it's 2000 high and still well below where it was when George W. Bush took office in January 2001. That's what a Republican administration will do for you.

The S&P 500 is still well below it's high from 2000 and well below where it was when George W. Bush was sworn in back in January 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is barely back to where it was when Bush took office in 2001 but still below it's 2000 high.

As far as gold is concerned, it still has a long way to go before it sets a new high. The gold and silver markets were really irrational 26 years ago when gold topped $800 and silver briefly hit $50. That's when the Hunt brothers thought they had cornered the silver market. They were mistaken. It's amazing that gold has gone from $420/oz back in August 2005 to $624/oz (right now, this very minute); but even more amazing is the fact that silver was just $8.40/oz three months ago and only $9.78/oz last month and yet it's $13.93/oz right now.

The precious metals markets are extremely volatile. There is nothing to stop either gold or silver from taking a 50% drop in value within a few months and then taking 20 years to recover. I don't think that's about to happen any time soon but you never know.

Besides the fact that gold has historically risen in times of political instability, there is the rise in demand from India, where it is held in very high esteem for jewelry and as a status symbol. India and China are growing consumer nations and they will be consuming more than just oil.

As far as the price of oil is concerned, it's price is limited in the sense that once it reaches a certain level, alternative sources of energy will become economically viable. If it were not for the threat of disruption in places like Nigeria, Iraq and Iran, I think oil would be down around $45-$50/bbl. All it will take to push oil over $80/bbl right now would be a terrorist attack on a Saudi refinery or some other major threat in the Middle East. If we attack Iran, oil will shoot up to $100/bbl because there is no telling what the reaction will be from other oil exporting countries. There is only so much oil we can get from Canada and Mexico.

P.S. -- The "irrational exuberance" in that person's signature line was a reference to the reefkeeping hobby, not the stock market.

P.P.S. -- You're probably way too young to remember this, but I remember back when the government freed the dollar from silver. Silver had been pegged at $1/oz. A silver dollar contained an ounce of silver. And dollar bills were "silver certificates." The U.S. mint started letting people stand in line to buy bags of 1,000 silver dollars for $1,000. At that point, silver was about $1.29/oz. So it was like an automatic 29% gain in value. You were limited to one bag per person.

Silver rose to around $10/oz, IIRC, and then the Hunt boys and their Saudi prince friend starting gaming the market. It quickly rose to around $22/oz and then, during a hectic period of no more than several days, it briefly spiked all the way up to around $50/oz. Then Peru dumped several million ounces on the market and the price plunged within days back down to the low 20's and high teens. From there it declined all the way down to around $4 or $5/oz over the next several years. It stayed down there for a very long time.

[Ninong]

At the risk of boring you guys to death, I would like to point out that gold is now $629.70/oz. Momentum is taking over. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% correction sometime soon.

P.S. -- Light sweet crude is at $73.20/bbl.

[Ninong]

Looks like I'm only 65 cents away from my prediction of $75/bbl oil by this summer. Light sweet crude is $74.35/bbl right now and gold has just hit $640/oz.

[schrocat]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Looks like I'm only 65 cents away from my prediction of $75/bbl oil by this summer. Light sweet crude is $74.35/bbl right now and gold has just hit $640/oz.

You said IN the summer, not BY the summer.

You Sir, are a soothsaying hoax! A fraud! A shameless huckster! A flopper of flips!

[Poseidon]

Nearly $75 a BARREL??? What is the record high, I assume this is it?

[Ninong]

Yes, oil has been setting new highs every day lately. It's previous high right after Hurricane Katrina was $70.40/bbl. Right this minute it's $73.99/bbl but it was up to $74.50/bbl a couple hours ago. Right now gold is $640.00/oz but it was up to $642.50/oz about an hour ago.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by schrocat

You said IN the summer, not BY the summer.

You Sir, are a soothsaying hoax! A fraud! A shameless huckster! A flopper of flips!

I said by the summer before I said in the summer. Just read my declassified NIE on gas prices posted in Scott Passe's quaint thread complaining about $2.00/gal gas back in March 2005:

"I think we will see $60 a barrel oil by early this summer. We may see $75 a barrel oil by sometime next summer." (And no, I didn't just edit it either.)

That's the line that I quoted in the opening post of this thread.




P.S. -- OK, I just checked and I can't find where I ever said in the summer. Where did you find that? In any case, it all depends on what the meaning of in is.

P.P.S. -- I can't believe Scott was complaining about $2.00/gal gas. Those were the good old days. I'm afraid $2.00/gal gas has gone to gasoline heaven and we will never see it again.

[schrocat]

Originally Posted by Ninong in #42

Back in March 2005, I predicted oil would hit $60/bbl in the summer of 2005 (it did) and $75/bbl in the summer of 2006. Well, it's not summer yet but oil is at $71/bbl right now!

Impeach Nixonong

[schrocat]

I predict that yesterday I bought a silver Mazda 6 getting 31-32 to replace my 10 mpg Nissan Frontier.

[schrocat]

Gulp! Try $4.50!
Brooklyn gas station floors it
BY JONATHAN LEMIRE and RICH SCHAPIRO
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERS Motorist looks in stunned silence at $4.50 pump price at Brooklyn gas station.
With pump prices rising fast, a gas station under the Brooklyn Bridge took a quantum leap into outrageousness - charging a jaw-dropping $4.50 a gallon! That's what the Gulf Station on Old Fulton St. in Brooklyn Heights was charging credit card customers for a gallon of premium yesterday.
A gallon of regular gas was no bargain, either, at $4.14 for cash or $4.26 on plastic.
"That's crazy," said Mike Charles, 49, after gawking at the astronomical rates. "I've never seen gas prices like that before."
"There's no way I'd ever pay that much," he added. "I don't care how badly I needed gas."
Around the city, motorists were bracing for prices to crest at $3, a figure the Brooklyn station left in the dust.
A Daily News reporter spent nearly 90 minutes outside the station yesterday evening before a driver finally decided to fork over an exorbitant amount of dough for some fuel.
"I had no other options," said Carey Macaleer, 29, as she paid a whopping $49.16 to fill up her navy blue Subaru Outback. "I'm virtually empty and I'm going to Westchester."
Donald Borbee, co-manager of the station, said its prices were so high because the station's tanks are small, requiring numerous deliveries.
He added that the station functions primarily as an auto repair and service shop.
"We know it's expensive, but we don't have a choice," Borbee said.
As New Yorkers lashed out against the skyrocketing fuel prices yesterday, Sen. Chuck Schumer called for an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission to ensure that rising gas prices are not a result of corporate greed.
"It's not hurricane season, but the oil companies are just raising the price up and up and up," Schumer said. "And the question is are they doing this dictated on the laws of supply and demand, or is something else at work?"






http://www.nydailynews.com/front/sto...p-346997c.html

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by schrocat

Impeach Nixonong

WANTED
Dead and Alive
Schrodinger's cat!