[Ninong]

I think we made a mistake staying but hopefully things will work out OK. The risk is that if the eye passes directly over us or slightly to the west of us, we may lose the house completely. If the eye passes to the east of us, the house will probably survive.

We may still decide to evacuate late this evening if we see that the eye is shifting to the west so that it looks like it will pass directly over us. We would take all of the animals but that would mean abandoning my aquarium.

If we stay and the house survives, we will probably be without ALL utilities for at least several days, maybe several weeks. We do have a nice new generator to run the house lights, refrigerators, my aquarium, etc., but without central A/C for the house, I will have a hard time keeping the aquarium alive anyway. Our temps this time of the year are in the high 90's with heat index numbers around 110 because of the humidity.

[Ninong]

They keep saying that this thing is goint to curve to the north but I don't see it doing that yet.

Here is the IR loop: IR Loop

We were hoping that it would have started to curve to the north by now. It's present movement is in a direct line straight at our house. In fact, if it doesn't curve north at all, it would miss us to the west of us. We're a few miles north of the western edge of Lake Ponchartrain, which is that teardrop-shaped inlet of water you see on the map. The lake is actually about 50 miles long and 26 miles across in the middle. It may be MUCH bigger than that after this storm passes. They may have to rename it Lake New Orleans.

[zhenya]

Oh brother! This is one monstrous storm. I hope you guys decide to leave that house and your aquarium behind and use some back roads to get the heck out. I can't imagine worse scenario for the NO and it;s residents...

Good luck with whatever you decide to do, George.

[scubadude]

Originally Posted by Ninong

We may still decide to evacuate late this evening if we see that the eye is shifting to the west so that it looks like it will pass directly over us.

Ninong,
I have known practically every word to come out of your mouth to be of strict intelligence, however leaving late this evening I think will be way too late the outer bands are already hitting the state. No offense bro, but I think you need to get the hell out of dodge right now! Even if you do creep out of it right now slowly then you will be that much further away from it. Just my opinion the only logic I see in staying is if you guys dont think you can outrun it. I think there are many others waiting to see and possibly evacuate tonite as well so traffic may well be worse than it is right now.

[charlie]

Originally Posted by charlie

George, I have 5 words for you!!!

GET THE %^&* OUTTA THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GEORGE

[Ninong]

Rocky,

If we were going to leave, we should have left early this morning but my sister wouldn't do that. Then my brother-in-law's parents decided to leave their house and come here. It took them 4-1/2 hours to cover 65 miles! They finally made it.

At this point, we have no intention of leaving unless we lose the roof on the house or lose the house completely. If we flood, it will be too late to leave once the water level reaches the slab of the house, which is 24" above the ground. Unless we leave in my bro-in-law's boat.

I think we will be OK unless we get the eye or unless the eye passes just to the west of us. They keep showing the eye passing over the eastern half of Lake Ponchartrain. That would put the west wall of the eye a good 25 miles from us. If that happens, I don't think we will get anything greater than 130 mph. If the winds drop down to 155 mph at landfall, that would help a lot. We're far enough from the coast that our winds should be about 20-30 mph lower than whatever the the official landfall wind speed is.

I just don't know what's going to happen to Lake Ponchartrain when the storm surge comes in. I don't feel like having the Gulf of Mexico in my backyard.

[Ninong]

Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 165 mph but central pressure is still just 902 mb. I still don't see any sign of a movement to the north yet.

[Ninong]

Just now the weather channel told me that my local area is under a hurricane warning, a tornado watch and a flash flood watch. Is there anything else they forgot?

It's getting breezier and we're now getting thunder with the rain.

[scubadude]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 165 mph but central pressure is still just 902 mb. I still don't see any sign of a movement to the north yet.

Whats the weather like right now where you are at Ninong?
from the looks of the IR loop there is a red band of the hurricane that is already stretching into your area

[charlie]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Just now the weather channel told me that my local area is under a hurricane warning, a tornado watch and a flash flood watch. Is there anything else they forgot?

It's getting breezier and we're now getting thunder with the rain.

At least it isn't cold enuf to snow, they are missing the blizzard warning

[Poseidon]

George I wish you my best! You are welcome here... But I doubt you could make it all the way up to MI!!! I will supply you with whatever frags you want of mine, should you lose the tank... I'll even throw in some FREE AIPTASIA! It is the least I can do.

Sincerely though, I hope you and your family are SAFE thru this. That BOAT may actually come in handy...

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by scubadude

Whats the weather like right now where you are at Ninong?
from the looks of the IR loop there is a red band of the hurricane that is already stretching into your area

We have been having feeder bands passing over since about 2 p.m. today. It's has rained off and on for the past six or seven hours but nothing really bad. It has been breezy almost all day but we're nowhere near tropical storm-force winds yet. That may happen within the next couple of hours.

Right now I'm watching the IR loop to see where the eye is going. It should have turned due north by now but I'm not sure whether I'm seeing that yet or not.

[Ninong]

http://mappoint.msn.com/(3bbtle55vm5...ef|&UA=67&gb=2

As you can see from the map, we're a few miles north of the western end of Lake Ponchartrain-Lake Maurepas. They keep saying the eye of the storm will pass over the eastern half of Lake Ponchartrain but I'm beginning to doubt that. I'm afraid it may pass a little more to the west than that. The eye is 32 miles across. Lake Ponchartrain is about 50 miles across.

[scubadude]

Ninong im trying to find out how fast the hurricane is moving...not the rotation speed. Cant seem to find the tracking speed

[Ninong]

This Intellicast map is predicting winds of 130 kts (150 mph) on the northshore of Lake Ponchartrain:

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherIm...ic/tghur2.gif?

It would be nice if they were too high by at least 25 mph.

[scubadude]

Originally Posted by scubadude

Ninong im trying to find out how fast the hurricane is moving...not the rotation speed. Cant seem to find the tracking speed

NM I found it....11 MPH

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by scubadude

Ninong im trying to find out how fast the hurricane is moving...not the rotation speed. Cant seem to find the tracking speed

Rocky,

Try the NOAA National Weather Service website: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

As of 7 p.m. CDT it was moving NNW at 11 mph.

[Reefland]

Originally Posted by scubadude

Ninong im trying to find out how fast the hurricane is moving...not the rotation speed. Cant seem to find the tracking speed

Last I heard it was moving at 13mph.

[scubadude]

Originally Posted by Ninong

This Intellicast map is predicting winds of 130 kts (150 mph) on the northshore of Lake Ponchartrain:


It would be nice if they were too high by at least 25 mph.

Are you saying your house wont stay together for more than 130 MPH?

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by scubadude

Are you saying your house wont stay together for more than 130 MPH?

We don't know. All we know is that Category 5 hurricanes can be expected to level most houses regardless of construction. When hurricane Camille went ashore at Pass Christian, MS in 1969, most of the houses near the coast were gone after the storm passed. All that was left was the concrete slab. There was even a new, two-story brick apt building that was wiped out. About 17 or 18 people drowned in that building because they were having a hurricane party. There was only one survivor.

Not many homes can survive 160 mph winds. In fact, there is only one shelter in the entire city of New Orleans rated to withstand 150 mph winds and that's the Superdome. None of the schools can take winds above 150 mph.

Sustained winds of about 160 mph would be like having a F 3 tornado sitting over your house for a few hours because that's how long it will take for a storm with a 32-mile diameter eye to pass over you if you get a direct hit.

P.S. -- Don't you remember the pictures of Homestead, FL in 1992 when Andrew passed through?