[Samper]

Everyone alright down there?

[scubadude]

Hurricane Katrina knocked out some power grids in Miami area but there was no real devasting destruction from what I have heard. You remember Matts greenhouse Im sure Chuck? Well he was in the middle of all this and he just lost power but had generators on standby and he is doing ok considering the circumstances Just talked to him today and he wanted me to relay to everyone things arent too terribly bad down there right now.

[Ninong]

This one wasn't all that bad when it crossed Florida. The eye passed over my nephew's house in Ft. Lauderdale and we were on the phone talking to his wife several times to make sure she's OK. My nephew's in Brasilia right now.

It could strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. That often happens this time of year because the surface water temps are so high. Here is the latest chart from the national weather service:



It it follows that projection, the eye will move ashore about 110 miles to the east of me. Projections have a tendency to be revised every ten or twelve hours, so there's no telling where they will be projecting landfall 24 or 48 hours from now. I just hope it doesn't reach Category 3 or higher no matter where it goes ashore.

[Reefland]

That project is significantly different than what it was a day ago, where it had it aimed directly at the panhandle of FL and curling back into AL and GA. I wonder if the projections will continue to push it west?

[Ninong]

It's significantly different from where they had it this morning, too. That projection, the one I posted, is 150 miles west of this morning's projection.

[Ninong]

They just moved it a lot more to the west. Here's the latest projection chart:

[Ninong]

Hey! I just noticed something. My first chart has now been updated and it no longer shows landfall near Biloxi, MS. It's showing landfall right around Slidell, LA right now. Both charts are now as of 11 p.m. but originally my first chart was as of 5 p.m.?????

How did that happen?

Does it sort of refresh automatically every time we reload the thread???

Anyway, it's latest projected landfall would have the eye passing about 50 miles to the east of me but I'm sure that will keep changing over the next day or two.

[Ninong]

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Eye Of Hurricane Katrina Was Located By
Radar Near Latitude 24.6 North...longitude 83.6 West Or About 460
Miles Southeast Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River And About 115
Miles West Of Key West Florida.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West-southwest Near 8 Mph. A Gradual
Turn To The West And West-northwest Is Expected On Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 105 Mph With Higher
Gusts. Katrina Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Katrina Is Expected To Become A Major Hurricane During The
Next Day Or Two.

[Samper]

I'm very glad Matt made it out without a scratch. Rocky, send me a pm sometime letting me know what's going on with the co-op sometime if you don't mind. Meanwhile you LA/MS guys are in my thoughts.

[Reefland]

Originally Posted by Ninong

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Eye Of Hurricane Katrina Was Located By
Radar Near Latitude 24.6 North...longitude 83.6 West Or About 460
Miles Southeast Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River And About 115
Miles West Of Key West Florida.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West-southwest Near 8 Mph. A Gradual
Turn To The West And West-northwest Is Expected On Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 105 Mph With Higher
Gusts. Katrina Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Katrina Is Expected To Become A Major Hurricane During The
Next Day Or Two.

Looks like your going to feel this one.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by Reefland

Looks like your going to feel this one.

They keep changing their projections. Right now it doesn't look good but maybe they'll change it some more in their next bulletin.

The latest projection calls for the center of the eye to pass about 20 miles to the east of our house. The only thing worse than that would be for the center of the eye to pass 20 miles to the west of us.

Present projections call for it to strengthen to a minimum of 125 mph but possibly all the way up to 150 mph before making landfall. I'm not wishing any bad luck on anybody else but I just hope it changes course a little.

[Reefland]

They still calling for landfall early Monday?

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by Reefland

They still calling for landfall early Monday?

The official estimate as of 10 a.m. CDT today (Saturday) calls for landfall sometime between 10 a.m. CDT and 10 p.m. CDT Monday.

Projected landfall at that time was anywhere between Morgan City, LA and Pensacola, FL. That puts New Orleans in the center of that projected path. Mandatory evacuations have already been ordered for Lafourche, St. Charles and Plaquemines parishes and for the southern part of Jefferson parish.

So far they have not ordered mandatory evacuations for any other areas. That's because they need to get the people who are closest to the coast out first before ordering the evacuation of all of Orleans and Jefferson parishes. If the storm continues on its current projected path, they will probably order the mandatory evacuation of New Orleans and all of Jefferson parish sometime tomorrow.

We are a few miles north of Lake Ponchartrain. I don't expect them to order a "mandatory" evacuation for our area, probably just a voluntary evacuation. All of that assumes that it actually makes landfall over Grand Isle, which is the current projection. That would have the eye passing directly over New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. The last time that happened with hurricane Betsy on September 9, 1965, some areas of New Orleans and St. Bernard parish were under nine feet of water for several days. I remember it well. (P.S. -- The weather channel just reminded me about Hurricane Andrew in 1992 but I was living in California then dodging earthquakes.)

Don't forget, the average elevation in New Orleans is a minus number! Rainwater has to be pumped up into Lake Ponchartrain and the Mississippi river.

[Ninong]

Here is the 1 p.m. CDT bulletin that was just released two minutes ago:



000
WTNT32 KNHC 271738
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 230
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ninong]

Satellite images and loops:



Visible
Vis Loop
IR Loop

P.S. -- CDT is GMT minus 5 hrs.

[Reefland]

Hope your buckling down or thinking of getting out George...From weather.com:
Hurricane Katrina is a very dangerous Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. It's forecast to become a Category 4 storm early Sunday with winds as high as 140 mph. Everyone along the northern Gulf of Mexico needs to take this hurricane very seriously and put action plans into play now. Hurricane Katrina has begun to make a deliberate, gradual turn to the west-northwest during the last few hours. Based on this trend of turning toward the Gulf Coast, hurricane warnings have now been hoisted from Morgan City, La., to the Florida-Alabama border. This includes the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

[Ninong]

I know the forecast. We have the weather channel on one TV and a local channel on another TV.

And I just finished reading the 10 p.m. bulletin. It was unchanged. The last time they changed the projected landfall was 12 hours ago.

No, we're not planning on leaving but we do have both SUVs gassed up and we could leave if absolutely necessary. If we leave, we will take three dogs, three cats and three parrots with us.

Right now we're still hoping that it curves a little more to the EAST of us. There is a large thunderstorm front passing through Shreveport right now and if that moves our way, and if the hurricane continues moving as slow as it is right now, it might cause the hurricane to move slightly more to the east than the present projection.

Besides, it seems like a waste to leave after we bought that generator two years ago when a hurricane, whose name I have forgotten, passed pretty close to us.

If we were right on the coast, that would be different. Grand Isle, LA will not exist if a Category 4 hurricane passes directly over it with a 20-ft storm surge. It's a barrier island. People keep rebuilding houses there on pilings but every time they get a direct hit, everything is destroyed.

I'm not as worried about the wind as I am about the possibility of flooding. We're only a few miles north of Lake Ponchartrain and we're 1/2 mile from one river and 3/4 mile from another river. Nobody really knows what will happen. It all depends on exactly where the eye passes. The really serious flooding threat is to New Orleans. A worst case scenario for them means 10-15 ft of water that could stand for a few months. Flooding that submerges their pumping stations would mean that they would have no way to "bail out" so to speak.

[Ninong]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 280541
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT...0600Z.
THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Ninong]

At 1 Am Cdt...0600z...the Center Of Hurricane Katrina Was Located
Near Latitude 25.1 North... Longitude 86.8 West Or About 310
Miles... 500 Km... South-southeast Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi
River.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph. A Gradual
Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected Later Today.

Reports From An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That
Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased And Are Now Near 145
Mph...with Higher Gusts. Katrina Is A Category Four Hurricane On
The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Additional Strengthening Is Possible
Today.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 160 Miles...260 Km.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By The Reconnaissance
Aircraft Was 935 Mb...27.61 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...locally As High As 25 Feet Along With Large And Dangerous
Battering Waves...can Be Expected Near And To The East Of Where The
Center Makes Landfall.

Heavy Rains From Katrina Should Begin To Affect The Central Gulf
Coast Sunday Evening. Rainfall Totals Of 5 To 10 Inches...with
Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches...are Possible Along The Path
Of Katrina. The Hurricane Is Still Expected To Produce Additional
Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches Over Extreme Western Cuba...and 1
To 3 Inches Of Rainfall Is Expected Over The Yucatan Peninsula.

Repeating The 1 Am Cdt Position...25.1 N... 86.8 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...145 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 935 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
4 Am Cdt.

[Ninong]

Bulletin
Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 21
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
4 Am Cdt Sun Aug 28 2005

...dangerous Category Four Hurricane Katrina Continues
West-northwestward But Expected To Turn Northward...
...new Tropical Storm Warnings Issued For Northern Gulf Coast...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The North Central Gulf Coast
From Morgan City Louisiana Eastward To The Alabama/florida
Border...including The City Of New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain.
A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To
Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Are In Effect From
East Of The Alabama/florida Border To Destin Florida...and From
West Of Morgan City To Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Watch
Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch
Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

At 4 Am Cdt...0900z...a Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued From
Destin Florida Eastward To Indian Pass Florida...and From
Intracoastal City Louisiana Westward To Cameron Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 4 Am Cdt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Katrina Was Located
Near Latitude 25.4 North... Longitude 87.4 West Or About 275 Miles
South-southeast Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 10 Mph. A Gradual
Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 145 Mph With Higher Gusts. Katrina
Is A Category Four Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some
Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The
Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 185 Miles.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 935 Mb...27.61 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...locally As High As 25 Feet Along With Large And Dangerous
Battering Waves...can Be Expected Near And To The East Of Where The
Center Makes Landfall.

Rainfall Totals Of 5 To 10 Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
15 Inches...are Possible Along The Path Of Katrina Across The Gulf
Coast And The Southeastern United States. The Hurricane Is Still
Expected To Produce Additional Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches
Over Extreme Western Cuba...and 1 To 3 Inches Of Rainfall Is
Expected Over The Yucatan Peninsula.

Isolated Tornadoes Will Be Possible Beginning Sunday Evening Over
Southern Portions Of Louisiana...mississippi...and Alabama...and
Over The Florida Panhandle.

Repeating The 4 Am Cdt Position...25.4 N... 87.4 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...145 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 935 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 7 Am Cdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 10 Am
Cdt.

Forecaster Knabb