[Ninong]

I have no idea how accurate CNN's website is but they now show Webb with an 8,000 vote lead in Virginia and Tester with a 1,700 vote lead in Montana.

At one point late last night, CNN had Webb with an 11,500 vote lead and they were calling that final. Now this morning their website shows him with just an 8,000 vote lead with 99% of precincts reporting. There must be a few precincts outstanding in Virginia???

P.S. -- The following statement was issued by the DSCC this morning:

Both Jon Tester and Jim Webb have won their races in Montana and Virginia but want to make sure that every vote is counted. We expect to have official results soon but can happily declare today that Democrats have taken the majority in the U.S. Senate.

Montana Vote Situation: Jon Tester leads Conrad Burns by approximately 1,700 votes (as of 11am EDT) and counting. In Silver Bow County (Butte), a Democratic stronghold, votes are still being counted but Tester is winning there with 66% of the vote. We expect to gain the majority of these uncounted votes and to add to Tester's margin.

Montana Process: When the counting phase is completed, a canvass will verify the vote tallies. That process could take as long as 48 hours, and must begin within three days and end within seven. Unless the canvass shows the margin to be within ¼ of 1%, there is no recount. As the loser, Burns would have to request the recount. When the votes are all counted, we expect to be outside that recount margin.

Virginia Vote Situation: Jim Webb is up by approximately 8,000 votes and once the provisional ballots are counted, we expect Webb's margin to increase. (Please note that VA absentees were included in the tallies from last night.)

Virginia Process: A canvass is underway to verify the results and we expect that process to finish within a day or so. To be in recount, the margin needs to be less than 1% and Allen (as the loser) would have to request it. Because of Virginia voting laws, the margin would have to be much tighter than it currently is to see any change in the outcome. Given the current margins, that is highly, highly unlikely.

[Ninong]

Democrats now control majority of state legislatures. The Democratic wave that swept the nation yesterday extended to the state level where the Republicans lost their advantage.

[WillieM96]

I live in VA and I'm very disappointed this morning over an amendment that was approved yesterday. Yesterday, we voted on an amendment to the state constitution to ban gay marriage and any legal contract between same sex partners. I don't care how you feel about homosexuality, only bad can come from this legislation. It accomplishes nothing and only serves to deprive good citizens of their rights.

[schrocat]

Originally Posted by Ninong

You win!!!

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by WillieM96

I live in VA and I'm very disappointed this morning over an amendment that was approved yesterday. Yesterday, we voted on an amendment to the state constitution to ban gay marriage and any legal contract between same sex partners. I don't care how you feel about homosexuality, only bad can come from this legislation. It accomplishes nothing and only serves to deprive good citizens of their rights.

As you probably know, a similar amendment in Arizona was defeated. That was a first.

This issue is EXTREMELY divisive and it seems to be more divisive in Virginia than in Arizona.

For example:

In Virginia 68% of Democrats and 53% of Independents voted AGAINST the ban vs. 85% of Republicans who voted FOR it.

79% of liberals and 51% of moderates voted AGAINST the ban but 86% of people who identified themselves as conservatives voted FOR it.

In Virginia, age was not as important a factor as political ideology and religion. Only Protestants voted FOR the ban. The majority of Catholics voted AGAINST it and 80% of those who did not express a religious preference voted AGAINST it.

In Arizona, where a similar ban was defeated, there was a very noticeable divide based on age. Younger voters voted overwhelming AGAINST the ban, while really old voters were FOR it. The Arizona ban was defeated by 2% even though Saint John McCain made a last minute appeal in favor of it, leaving the Log Cabin Republicans no choice but to support Rudy Giuliani.

In Arizona, 61% of voters under the age of 30 voted AGAINST the ban. By political party affiliation, 75% of Democrats and 64% of Independents voted AGAINST the ban vs. 74% of Republicans who voted FOR it.

By ideology, 80% of liberals and 61% of moderates voted AGAINST the ban vs. 75% of conservatives who voted FOR it.

In Arizona, by racial groups, only African-Americans voted FOR the ban. All other racial groups voted AGAINST the ban.

In both states, the higher the education, the higher the vote AGAINST a ban on gay marriage. Likewise, the higher the income, the higher the vote AGAINST such a ban.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by schrocat

To tell you the truth, I was afraid that my estimate of 27 House seats might be a little too high. I was expecting at least 25 seats but hoping for 30, so I compromised and picked 27. Looks like it will be 30 or more after all the counting is done.

In the Senate, I was hoping for six but I could see a scenario where, if everything went wrong, the Democrats could end up with only a gain of two seats. My best estimate was that 4 or 5 seats was the most likely outcome because I suspected that Tennessee was lost and that one of the other must have seats would probably slip away from us. Needless to say, I'm thrilled that it appears that the Democrats will pick up six seats.

The governorships were 28 GOP and 22 Dem prior to November 7 and now the numbers are exactly reversed: 28 Dem and 22 GOP.

Prior to November 7, the GOP controlled the majority of state legislatures and now the Democrats control most state legislatures.

Arnold Schwarzenegger's victory in California is actually a defeat for the Bush Administration because he repudiated many of the national GOP's most cherished positions after his famous mea culpa speech following the defeat of all six of his propostions in California. He fired his top staff and replaced them with Democrats, and not just any Democrats. His top two aides are both Democrats who are openly gay and living with partners. His chief of staff, who is a lesbian, is the former California state Democratic Party chair. Not only that, Arnold started compromising with the Democratic controlled state legislature to the point that his positions on most issues were almost identical to the Democratic gubernatorial candidate's positions and Arnold is far more photogenic and charismatic. It was really no contest.

Arnold is a case study in how to go from a 35% approval rating to a 65% approval rating in no time at all, and he did it without Karl Rove's help. It would not surprise me to see a national effort to get a constitutional amendment allowing anyone who has been a citizen for at least 20 or 25 years (25 years would work for Arnold) to be eligible for the presidency. This would probably pass both the House and the Senate with the necessary 2/3 majority and might get ratified by the necessary 3/4 of the states but it would probably take at least three years, which would be just about right for Arnold if the next president is a one-termer. Arnold is now a Two-Terminator! And he's not nearly as obnoxious as he was when he was campaigning for his six GOP-style ballot measures. The morning after all of his initiatives were defeated by wide margins, he apologized to the people of California for being so out of touch and promised to be more in tune with their values in the future. His approval rating jumped almost immediately after his humble pie speech and hasn't stopped rising since.

Last night Arnold said: "As you all know, I love sequels!"

[schrocat]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Arnold is a case study in how to go from a 35% approval rating to a 65% approval rating in no time at all, and he did it without Karl Rove's help.

Yeah.
Nobody wants an "architect" whose houses fall.



P.S On the flipside, Bush went from 65 to 35 with Rove's help.

[zhenya]

So, now that Dems won this midterm, will the prices on land in Paraguay skyrocket?

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by zhenya

So, now that Dems won this midterm, will the prices on land in Paraguay skyrocket?

I understand Tony Blair is suddenly looking for his own retirement hideaway now. The idea of the Democrats with subpoena power is very, very scary to Tony.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Exit poll results that were posted at 8:00 p.m. ET:

Democrats leading:
Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)
Republicans leading:
Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)

Let's compare the exit polls with the actual results:

Arizona: Kyl by 4, actual: Kyl by 9.
Tennessee: Corker by 3, actual: Corker by 3.
Maryland: Cardin by 7, actual: Cardin by 10.
Missouri: McCaskill by 2, actual: McCaskill by 3.
Montana: Tester by 7, actual: Tester by 1.
New Jersey: Menendez by 7, actual: Menendez by 8.
Ohio: Brown by 14, actual: Brown by 12.
Pennsylvania: Casey by 15, actual: Casey by 18.
Rhode Island: Whitehouse by 7, actual: Whitehouse by 6.
Virginia: Webb by 5, actual: Webb by less than 1.

The exit polls were very accurate in Tennessee, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. They correctly predicted Arizona but the margin of victory was more than double what the exit polls predicted.

Exit polls picked the winner in Virginia and Montana but they were wildly off on the margin of victory.

P.S. -- Donald Rumsfeld is out. That didn't take long, did it? Hey, Kenny, are you awake yet?

[Ninong]

Robert Gates is the 22nd Secretary of Defense. He was preceeded by Donald Rumsfeld. This is the way his bio on Wikipedia read when I checked it less than one minute after Bush made the announcement. It was later reported on the cable news channels that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Peter Pace, wasn't informed about Rumsfeld's resignation until 10 a.m. this morning.


Former CIA Director and new Secretary of Defense nominee, Robert Gates
(P.S. -- He will be confirmed easily!)

P.S. -- It seems that Wikipedia has pulled the article temporarily. It's interesting to note that the article was VERY complete and was posted well in advance of President Bush's announcement. Obviously it was prepared by someone with prior knowledge and posted before Bush even made his announcement. I assume Wikipedia will put it back up shortly.

Bush just said that he hasn't even "visited with Bob Gates yet and he hasn't had his final conversation with Don Rumsfeld yet."

Bush just said "I thought we were going to be fine yesterday. Shows what I know." He was talking about the elections.

He truly does live in a bubble. Clueless is too kind.

[zhenya]

Originally Posted by Ninong

P.S. -- Donald Rumsfeld is out. That didn't take long, did it? Hey, Kenny, are you awake yet?

Denny is next...
Who's Nancy Pelosi
I was rolling on the floor reading some of the comments on the bottom of the page...

[schrocat]

holy _____!





Keep em comin'

[Ninong]

Gene,

I first met Nancy and Paul Pelosi before she ran for Congress. She is NOT what the right-wing portrays her as. She is a very common sense liberal from San Francisco. She is actually considered middle of the road as far as San Francisco politicians go. She is to the right of Sen. Boxer and to the left of Sen. Feinstein. But she is also a pragmatist. Both her father and her brother were mayors of Baltimore. So she was raised in politics her entire life and is very familiar with the Washington, D.C. environment. She is much more of an "insider" than George W. Bush.

She was a Democratic Party fundraiser when I first moved to San Francisco in 1977. Her husband is a successful investor but not nearly as successful as Diane Feinstein's husband. (Feinstein's first husband is deceased.)

Believe it or not, Gavin Newsom was the most conservative of all the mayoral candidates when he was elected mayor of San Francisco. He was backed by all the Republicans and all the business interests. The only reason he won was because his opponent in the runoff was a Green Party candidate. That forced the Democratic Party leadership to back Newsom even though he wasn't their first choice. There are never any viable GOP candidates in San Francisco, so the local Republicans (all three of them) have to back the most conservative of the Democrats.

I first met Gavin when he was still in high school. He was a very good friend of Billy Getty, one of Gordon Getty's five sons.

P.S. -- Gavin Newsom is extremely popular in San Francisco now. Much moreso than when he was first elected.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by schrocat

holy _____!





Keep em comin'

Wikipedia's article on Robert Gates is back up but the caption under his photo now reads: Secretary of Defense Nominee.

I clicked on Wikipedia for "Robert Gates" within 30 seconds after I heard Bush mention his name on TV. I was shocked to see that there was a very complete article already up and that the caption under his picture read: Robert Gates, 22nd Secretary of Defense, preceeded by Donald Rumsfeld. That was definitely up BEFORE Bush made his announcement.

The article was obviously written by a staff member (in the DoD, White House, or Bob Gates' staff) who may have known more than Bush??? Maybe Bush just found out that Gates was going to be his new Secretary of Defense??? Just joking. I think. It is much more likely that Gates was chosen as the heir apparent weeks ago and they were just waiting for Rumsfeld to take the hint and resign on his own. The election results just provided the excuse to give him a push.

P.S. -- Speculation now is that Robert Gates was the choice of James Baker, consiglieri of the Bush family. That probably means that the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq will probably be accepted by the Bush Administration with an open mind. Rumsfeld would NEVER have accepted what Baker is about to propose.

So, when does Big Time come out of hiding? Will his hunting trip last as long as one of his last throes?

[zhenya]

She is NOT what the right-wing portrays her as.

Ninong,

I never pay attention to what right-wingnuts say about people anyways, especially about themselves.
I actually like Nancy Pelosi alot and personally think it will be exellent "change of direction" in the House, judging from everything I ever heard from Nancy Pelosi.

[Ninong]

The stock market rose Monday and Tuesday on the expectation that the Democrats would take control of the House, resulting in gridlock, which the market actually likes. It means government spending will actually slow down.

Then, this morning, the market was a little shocked to realize that the Senate, too, may change to Democratic control. So the market was slightly down today UNTIL Bush announced that Rumsfeld was out.

The market immediately spiked upwards on the news that Rumsfeld was history.

[schrocat]

Ninong,

Good question up there...

Where is Big Time?

seriously, he shouldn't be unsupervised...

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by schrocat

Ninong,

Good question up there...

Where is Big Time?

seriously, he shouldn't be unsupervised...

He's on a hunting trip in South Dakota with his daughter, Mary, and Mel Raines. Do you mean exactly where? I don't know.

According to an official press release, he's at a private hunting lodge near Pierre, SD. This is a private hunting lodge near Pierre

Maybe he's there, maybe not. I have no idea.

[Ninong]

Republican Merlin Feistner, of Woonsocket, South Dakota, and John Ashcroft have something in common. They've both lost elections to dead people.