[Ninong]

Michigan Primary Was Unconstitutional

Poor Hillary! She and her pal, Gov. Jennifer Granholm, went to all the trouble of violating the Democratic Party's rules in a blatant move to help her chances by holding their primary in January and now a federal judge has ruled that the Michigan law establishing the state's Jan. 15 presidential primary is unconstitutional. The DNC had already said that they weren't going to recognize the results and now a federal court has said that the whole thing was illegal from the get-go.

Poor Hillz! When will she ever learn?

[Ninong]

"Someone" Calling Texas Democratic Delegates Telling Them Today's Conventions Have Been Cancelled

Gee, I wonder who would want to do something like that?

McALLEN - The Texas Democratic Party has received reports of unknown persons calling and e-mailing delegates to incorrectly inform them their county and senate district conventions have been cancelled, said party spokesman Hector Nieto.

Nieto said several delegates had reported incidents to party officials, but he did not know where in Texas they hailed from. He said party officials were investigating who's behind the misinformation campaign.

Party officials have also received reports of delegates receiving "robo-calls," also claiming conventions have been cancelled.

P.S. -- The purpose of today's county and senatorial district conventions is to select delegates to the state convention, which will be held June 6-7 in Austin, where delegates to the national convention will be selected. It should be possible to determine exactly how many national delegates each candidate will receive after today's conventions. It won't be long now before the Clinton Campaign will have to acknowledge that she lost Texas.

[Ninong]

Chaos in Texas. Again!

The Texas Democratic Party has to sit down and change this ridiculous primary-caucus system before the 2012 elections. They still can't seem to get their act together. Some of their so-called conventions were still going on past midnight last night.

The Obama Campaign is sticking with their prediction from weeks ago that he will end up with 9 more delegates than Hillary out of the caucuses (38-29), wiping out the 4-delegate advantage she gained by winning the primary portion by 3.5%. If they ever get finished figuring out what's going on over there, he should end up winning the state of Texas by five delegates. Hillary will finish second. Or last, depending on how you want to look at it. Either way, Hillary lost Texas! No doubt she and Mr. Bill will start calling up all of Obama's delegates trying to talk them into becoming traitors.

[Ninong]

Clinton Campaign in Denial in Texas!


The Obama Campaign issued a press release late Saturday night claiming victory in Texas:

With more than 56 percent of the results tallied from today’s 284 Democratic district conventions across Texas, Sen. Barack Obama currently is projected to earn a 38-29 pledged delegate win in the Texas caucuses, exactly as projected on the day after the March 4th precinct caucuses. The nine delegate margin in the caucuses means Obama will gain a net margin of five pledged delegates from Texas because Senator Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary by only four delegates, 65-61.

“Despite the Clinton campaign’s widespread attempts to prevent many Texans from participating in their district convention, the voters of Texas confirmed Senator Obama’s important delegate win in the Lone Star State,” said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest. “Today’s record-shattering turnout sends a clear message that the American people are ready for change in Washington and new leadership in the White House that will stand up for working families.”

Clinton’s campaign objected.

Garry Mauro, coordinator of Clinton’s Texas campaign, conceded Obama may have gained on Clinton. But he said it was too early to say.

“I’m stunned,” Mauro said. “That’s not the way I count it.”

This is ridiculous! The Clinton Campaign is pretending that Obama did not overtake her puny four-delegate lead from the primary with his crushing defeat of her incompetent, dysfunctional caucus organization.

[Ninong]

Chaos in Texas (Cont'd.):


Hillary intends to win the nomination of the Democratic party by making half of the party hate her. Check out this comment posted on AmericaBlog:

My mom was a delegate in Dallas this past weekend. She arrived at 7AM and didn't get to leave until 8PM. She said that it appeared the Clinton delegates were trying to drag things out so long that people would have to leave. She thought they challenged about 3,000 delegates and each of them had to go through the credentialing committee.

One of the Clinton delegates from her group challenged the validity of entire precincts. One of the precincts she challenged was almost entirely African American. Towards the end, after this group was credentialed they came by and shook their fists at the Clinton delegate and chanted "we're still here" in her face. My mom said it was a little tense.

She also said that it was sad to see all of the elderly there having to sit in stadium seats for 13 hours. She didn't know of anyone leaving without an alternate to replace them though. A very pregnant woman in her group had to lie on the concrete floor at times.

I don't know why this didn't make bigger news. She said it was obvious to everyone there what was going on and she thought Clinton had made many enemies from inside the democratic party that day.

[Ninong]

Liar, Liar, Pantsuit on Fire!

Hillary is telling local media in North Carolina and Indiana that Sen. Obama doesn't want them to vote. She said, "I didn't understand why Sen. Obama and some of his supporters wanted to prevent you and some other states from actually being able to vote."

What Obama actually said was, "My attitude is that Sen. Clinton can run as long as she wants. She is a fierce and formidable opponent, and she obviously believes she would make the best nominee and the best president."

Some of Obama's superdelegate supporters (e.g., Sen. Patrick Leahy) have called on Hillary to drop out of the race. What Leahy actually said was that "Sen. Clinton has every right, but no good reason, to remain in the race."

Obama has never called on her to pull out of the race and neither has his campaign. Some members of his campaign have said that she should take a serious look at her situation but not a single campaign official has called on her to drop out of the race.

P.S. -- Her campaign is so broke that she's doing her own highlights now, and it shows.

[Ninong]

Encouraging Trend in Pennsylvania

Latest Rasmussen poll shows Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania down to only 5 points.

Senator Hillary Clinton’s lead in the Pennsylvania Primary is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%.

Hillary's 'kitchen sink' campaign against Obama seems to be hurting her more than him. People who were only slightly leaning in her favor are having second thoughts.

One way to get Hillary out of the race in a hurry would be for Obama to beat her in Pennsylvania. I'm not saying that will happen but it sure would be nice if it did. She needs to win Pennsylvania by at least 15 points if she hopes to have a shot at some of the later states like North Carolina, Indiana and Oregon.

It's not a matter of if Hillary will pull out of the race, it's only a matter of when.

[Ninong]

NBC Just Reported Barack Obama Won Texas

Believe it or not, Brian Williams reported that as if it were a surprising development. He explained to the clueless masses he envisions watch his program that even though Sen. Clinton had a lead of four delegates after the primary portion of the Texas two-step primary-caucus process that the overwhelming victory by Sen. Obama in the caucus portion gave him the victory in Texas by five delegates.

Hillz must be fuming right about now. Her campaign will probably call NBC and demand a retraction. Nothing is really officially official until the state convention in June. She and Bill might be able to prevent all those Obama delegates from making it to the state convention.

[Ninong]

Bubba Goes Ballistic in SF


Bill Clinton went berserk in a private meeting with superdelegates in San Francisco. He's still freaking out over Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama. The irony here is that Hillary's strategy right now is based on her plan to try to get delegates, both superdelegates and elected delegates, to switch to her. Bubba insists that Bill Richardson promised him that he would never endorse Obama. Bill Richardson responded that he never made any such promise.

In the pocket: The hottest ticket in San Francisco this weekend may well be the $2,300-a-head reception for Democratic hopeful Barack Obama at the Pacific Heights mansion of billionaire couple Ann and Gordon Getty.

We're told more than 400 guests are expected, but not Mayor Gavin Newsom, who - despite his close business and family ties to the Gettys - remains a big-time Hillary Clinton backer.

It's nice to see the Gettys are openly backing Barack. Gavin picked the wrong horse in this race. Gavin may seem like an ultra-liberal to the rest of the country but by San Francisco standards he's a centrist. In San Francisco, if you were any more conservative than Gavin Newsom, you would have to register as a Republican. What's surprising about the Gettys throwing this bash for Barack is that they and Gavin are extremely close.

[Ninong]

Hillary Said States Voting After February 5th Wouldn't Count

I guess she changed her mind but back in December 2007, Hillary Clinton told us that it would be all over by February 5th. Back then she was musing about whether she should name Bill as her Secretary of State.

[Ninong]

Maybe Those Bill Collectors Will Stop Calling Her At 3 AM



Hillary raked in so much cash at a Scranton fundraiser that "she was in tears" of joy, according to Bubba.

Mr. Clinton spoke passionately about the beating he said his wife has been taking in the media and said Wednesday night’s fundraiser could not have come at a better time. He praised the mayor’s sister for her organizing efforts.

“Virginia McGregor has done an outstanding job, and I just went upstairs and called Hillary, and she was in tears when I told her what was going on at Mayor Doherty’s house and how much money Virginia, the mayor and Mrs. (Donna) Doherty have raised here,” he said.

The party raised more than $250,000 for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, Mrs. McGregor told The Times-Tribune. “This is a great night,” she said.

The party began at 7 p.m., two hours before Mr. Clinton’s arrival, as guests rolled up in luxury SUVs and sportscars. A throng of media and spectators watched from across the street as the Secret Service and Scranton police made certain that uninvited guest remained at bay.

Here.

Maybe she'll start paying all those creditors her campaign has been stiffing for the past few months. She claims she finally paid the three months past-due health care premiums for her campaign staffers and assures everyone that the coverage was never actually cancelled. She paid the premiums just as the insurance was about to be cancelled. Hillary's plan to "cover everyone" apparently doesn't guarantee coverage for her own employees.

[Ninong]

This sounds a lot like an endorsement to me:


Former President Jimmy Carter is touring Nigeria right now and he said the following to a local newspaper reporter:

“We are very interested in the primaries. Don’t forget that Obama won in my state of Georgia. My town which is home to 625 people is for Obama, my children and their spouses are pro- Obama.

My grandchildren are also pro- Obama. As a Super Delegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for but I leave you to make that guess," he said.

Here.

In other "good" news for the Clinton Campaign, Rep. John Murtha (an announced Clinton supporter), said that it is absolutely essential that Hillary win Pennsylvania by a wide margin and that she end up with more total votes overall at the end of the primary process because there is no way that the Democratic party should nominate her if she does not have a lead in popular votes. Two other superdelegates (Sen. Maria Cantwell and Gov. Jon Corzine) who have announced for Hillary said pretty much the same thing -- they don't think she should be the nominee unless she at least has a lead in total popular votes.

It's good to know that Hillary's superdelegates are saying now that they will switch to Obama if he leads in all possible categories. Obama has won more states but Hillary says most of those states are not significant states. Obama has a lead of at least 167 elected delegates but Hillary says we shouldn't count the caucus delegates because she doesn't do well in caucuses. Right now Hillary has a slim lead in superdelegates but she trails Obama by well over 100 total delegates. In fact, it's quite possible that Obama is about to overtake Hillary in superdelegates. Some sources give him credit for a lot more superdelegates than others.

[Ninong]

CBS/NY Times Poll:

69% of Democratic voters expect Barack Obama to be the nominee.

56% of Democratic voters think Barack Obama would be the stronger candidate to take on John McCain.

32% of Democratic voters believe Hillary Clinton would be the stronger candidate.

5% -- That's the lead Obama currently has over McCain in the national poll of all Americans (47-42). It's the same as Hillary's lead over McCain (48-43). This would be a reversal of recent polls showing McCain with a slight lead over both Democrats.

[SPasse]

Ninong,

So Obama = “Stronger Candidate” and has a pretty much unassailable delegate lead.

You would think that even Hillary would know by now that it is time to concede.

Regards,

Scott

[Ninong]

Scott,

Hillary knows that she can't overtake Barack's delegate lead. She's trying to convince the superdelegates that Barack is unelectable because of the Jeremiah Wright problem. She expects to win Pennsylvania by double digits and use that win to bolster her argument that Barack can't win the white vote in critical swing states. And if she wins Pennsylvania by double digits, she believes that will give her momentum to win in North Carolina, Indiana and Oregon. Then she will argue that she is the candidate with the momentum as well as the candidate who won most of the big states.

In order to pull this off, she must convince the unannounced superdelegates to hold off making a commitment to Obama until after Pennsylvania. And she must win big in Pennsylvania. Right now Barack is outspending her three to one in TV ads in Pennsylvania. He doesn't have to win Pennsylvania; he just has to prevent her from winning big. And then when he wins North Carolina, as expected, it will all be over. The only way this thing continues into June is if Hillary wins Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Once Barack wins North Carolina, I believe most of the unannounced superdelegates will announce their support for him. In fact, I expect that after an Obama win in North Carolina, many of Hillary's superdelegates will publicly switch their support to Obama.

Here is a list of all the things that must go Hillary's way for her to have any shot at all at the nomination:

She must win by double digits in Pennsylvania.

She must win North Carolina.

She must overtake Obama in the total national popular vote. This can only happen if she racks up huge wins in at least six of the remaining ten states and counts the original popular vote in Florida and Michigan. This is not likely to happen.

Assuming Hillary does not overtake Barack in elected delegates or the total popular vote, her last stand position is that she is the candidate with the most momentum (assuming late state wins) and she is the candidate without a Jeremiah Wright problem. She and Bubba intend to press this argument with superdelegates and even elected delegates committed to Obama. And if she can't get enough delegates and superdelegates to give her the nomination on the first ballot, she hopes to convince enough of the superdelegates to abstain from voting on the first ballot so that Barack can't win either. Many elected delegates believe that they are only obligated to vote for their candidate on the first ballot and if Hillary's momentum is impressive and Barack appears unelectable, some of them may be willing to switch to Hillary on the second ballot. None of this is likely to happen but that's the fantasy that is keeping Billary in the race.

It would be nice if Barack beat her in Pennsylvania and put a stop to this mess right then and there. The nightmare scenario would be that Hillary wins Pennsylvania by 15 points and then she beats Barack in North Carolina by any margin. If that happens, she won't drop out and this will go to the convention.

[Ninong]

It's still possible for Barack to beat Hillary in Pennsylvania.

He has a lot more money than she does. He raised more than $40 million in March. She raised $20 million. And he went into March with about $31 million on hand. She went into March with only a few million on hand if you subtract debts.

Barack can outspend her in Pennsylvania by at least two to one and that should be good for a few points right there. Believe it or not, the Obama campaign is running Spanish language ads in Pennsylvania! Leave no stone unturned.

Barack picked up the endorsement of Sen. Bob Casey. This is an extremely important endorsement in Pennsylvania. Besides white women over 80, Hillary's other demographic that has been killing Barack is the Catholic vote. She has been winning the Catholic vote by a two to one margin. Pennsylvania is at least 30% Catholic. Bob Casey is Catholic -- even more Catholic than Ricky Santorum. It can only help Obama to have a high-profile, pro-life Catholic like Bob Casey campaigning for him. He doesn't have to win the Catholic vote, he just has to keep Hillary from winning it by more than 55%. Typically she carries >65% of the Catholic vote. BTW, I don't think this demographic bloc will go for John McCain in the general. Given a choice between Barack and Hillary, they seem to prefer Hillary. Why? Hillary and Barack have similar positions on all of the so-called Catholic issues. Is Hillary getting sympathy because of the Monica thing? Is it because of Jeremiah Wright?

Obama is touring Pennsylvania from one end to the other. He's campaigning in the Republican areas and union strongholds that Hillary thought she had locked up. And he has Bob Casey lending credibility to his campaign with exactly the voters Hillary expected to get without even trying.

Hillary was leading Barack by 20 points in February. Her lead slipped to 16 point in March. This week her lead averages single digits, ranging from a high of 11 points to a low of only 2 points. One poll shows Obama with a slight lead but I don't believe that poll. If we assume that the true number right now is a lead of 7 points for Hillary, then I believe Barack can close that gap between now and April 22. He just needs to improve by four points between now and the primary on April 22.

[Ninong]

Food for thought:

Hillary Clinton released her tax returns at 4 p.m. EDT Friday. She hasn't yet released her returns for 2007 but she released the previous years since she and Bill left the White House. We already know why she released her returns late on a Friday afternoon. That's SOP for releasing stuff you don't want to get a lot of media play, but that's not my point.

Here is my point: She leaked her returns to the Drudge Report BEFORE she released them to anyone else! He had full copies several minutes before they were publicly released. This is not the first time that Hillary has given Matt Drudge advance notice. She did the same thing with her third quarter 2007 campaign contributions filing report when she thought that she had outraised Obama by about a million bucks.

This is the same Matt Drudge who was the first to report on the Monica Lewinsky affair. This is the same Matt Drudge who said that the photos he received of Barack Obama dressed in the garb of a Somali elder (turban, etc.) came from "someone" in the Clinton Campaign. Hillary NEVER DID DENY that the photos came from her campaign, she merely said that she had no knowledge of that. Of course the photos came from her campaign!

Hillary will do whatever it takes to win, even if it means sleeping with the vast right-wing conspiracy.

[Ninong]

Hillary's Health Care Nightmare Story Not Exactly True

Hillary has been repeating a story on the campaign trail about an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself because she was unable to come up with a $100 hospital fee.

The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O'Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.

Oops! What about sniper fire? Did she have to dodge sniper fire on her way to the hospital?

[Ninong]

Campaign Update

Barack Obama continues to gain on Hillary Clinton in the only thing that really matters, delegates. In superdelegates, Hillary's lead is now down to only 28 from an early high of nearly 100. Hillary has 243 supers to Barack's 215. Barack has been getting about 85% of the superdelegates who have announced since February 5 and he has picked up a few important Clinton superdelegates who publicly switched. Hillary's plan to overtake Barack by winning most of the superdelegates isn't working very well.

In pledged delegates, Barack now leads Hillary by 171 (1,414 to 1,243), giving him an overall lead in total delegates of 143 right now. Hillary hopes to win big in Pennsylvania so that she can then declare herself the only "electable" candidate. She will then ask that the superdelegates and the delegates pledged to Barack recognize her as the only hope for the Democratic party in November against John McCain. She will have to work very fast because two weeks after Pennsylvania, Barack will win North Carolina by double digits.

The hopelessness of Hillary's position is apparent to just about everybody whose last name isn't Clinton. There is no way that the Democratic party is going to self-destruct just to satisfy Hillary's ambition to return to the White House.

P.S. -- The latest polls show Barack closing the gap in Pennsylvania. Just a few weeks ago Hillary led there by more than 20 points but her lead now is less than 10 points. In North Carolina, Barack is closing the gap with Hillary among white voters and increasing the gap over her with black voters. Polls in February showed Barack with 56% of the black vote in North Carolina. He has now increased that to 86%. Those same polls showed Hillary with a 20 point advantage among white voters there but Barack has cut that in half. Most North Carolina polls now show Barack leading by double digits and one poll (Rasmussen) shows him ahead by more than 20 points.

[Ninong]

Svengali Quits Clinton Campaign

Hillary was "disappointed" to learn that her chief campaign strategist, Mark Penn, was raking in the big bucks from the government of Colombia to lobby Congress for passage of a free trade agreement that Hillary opposes. It seemed unseemly that Penn should be on the payroll of a foreign government pushing for passage of a bill that his nominal boss, Sen. Hillary Clinton, publicly opposes. One might call that a conflict of interest. Mark Penn calls it business as usual.

In any event, his contract with the Colombian government was unceremoniously terminated* by them after he said publicly that his meeting with them on March 31st was an "error in judgment." And now, to add insult to injury, he has been asked to retire from the sinking ship Billary. I think he should have been forced to go down with the ship.

*Here's the statement from the Colombian Government:

The Colombian Government announces its decision to terminate the contract with Burson-Marsteller. This firm conducts public relations and communications consulting services on behalf of Colombia in the United States for the approval of the Free Trade Agreement and the continuation of Plan Colombia.

Mr. Mark Penn, President and CEO of Burson Marsteller, reponded to claims by Union representatives who questioned his relationship with the Colombian Government by declaring that it was an "error in judgment" to meet with his client the Colombian Ambassador on March 31. The Colombian government considers this a lack of respect to Colombians, and finds this response unacceptable.

The firm was retained by the Colombian Embassy in Washington in March of 2007 based on its track record in the field of Public Relations.

The Colombian Government will continue its efforts to show to different sectors in the United States, the dramatic improvements in the country's economy, social and security indicators, and will continue its efforts to obtain a favorable vote on the pending Free Trade Agreement with the United States, for greater wellbeing and prosperity for all.