[Ninong]

John Edwards Voted For Barack Obama

During a discussion on MSNBC's Morning Joe program this morning, John Edwards clearly said, "I just voted for him on Tuesday..." His wife Elizabeth reportedly voted for Hillary Clinton.

There is absolutley no question that Edwards said "him." I replayed it four times. Some people are saying that he said "I just voted for 'em on Tuesday..." He did not say that. He clearly said "him."

Edwards also said that he will eventually endorse the person he voted for this past Tuesday when the time is right.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Hillary refers to those voters as "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans." Sounds exactly like what David Duke used to say down here every time he was running for office. He was the candidate who would look out for the rights of "hard-working white Americans." Because, as we all know, white Americans have been so disadvantaged in this country.

Hillary's point, which is the same point she has been making behind closed doors for weeks now to the superdelegates, is that she can carry the redneck vote and Barack can't. She refers to these people as "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans." She even bragged that "whites who had not completed college were supporting me." She's proud of the fact that she appeals the the dumb white vote.

Poor Hillary!

That was a really dumb thing to say. Even her own supporters are saying so. Some of the so-called pundits on teevee are giving her dumb remarks an even more sinister spin. I know what she meant. She wanted to point out that the exit polls in North Carolina and Indiana showed that she did better than Barack among "white working-class" voters. That would be white voters without a college education whose family income is average or slightly less than average. She's trying to push the argument that those voters won't vote for Barack in November, they will vote for McCain instead. That may be true of those voters in certain states, as I pointed out previously, but it was the wrong thing for her to bring up publicly. Her really stupid campaign staffers have been saying this in private for months but for the candidate herself to repeat something as racially sensitive as this in public is just plain dumb.

But wait, it gets better. Many political pundits are claiming that by using the phrase "hard-working Americans, white Americans" it betrayed her belief that only white Americans are hard working. I didn't take it to mean that but now that they have brought it up, I can see how someone could stretch it to mean that.

Haha! Poor Hillary! Her remarks are even worse than I gave her credit for. So only white Americans are hard working. I guess that means that African Americans are all whiling away the hours sitting on their porches strumming banjos and eating watermellon. Way to go Hillary. You go, girl! Keep up the good work. The Obama camp must be laughing their asses off over this latest gaffe because they haven't said a thing about it.

[Ninong]

Dos Tacos de Pollo, Por Favor.

Barack was in Oregon today having lunch with his brother-in-law, Craig Robinson, the new men's head basketball coach at Oregon State. They wisely chose Luis' Taqueria in Woodburn. Barack's going after Hillary's base.

[Ninong]

Quo Vadis, Hillary?

In a sure sign of hopeless optimism, Hillary was in Sioux Falls, South Dakota today, where the "deluded also-ran" (as the AP calls her) was telling a small gathering of out-of-touch-with-reality South Dakotans that her health plan is better than her opponent's.

"When Hillary is president, the voices of South Dakota families will finally be heard," according to Matt Tepper of Hillary for President.com.

Meanwhile, Bubba was in West Virginia, where he told a crowd of "hard-working Americans, white Americans" (without college degrees) that "West Virginia is the next test." In West Virginia, Hillary will prove once again that she is more "electable" than her opponent. Yeah, right. The candidate who is losing the election wants us to believe she is "more electable."

Here's the real kicker: The Clinton Campaign is broke. She's racking up more bills right now in a hopeless effort to hang in there just in case Barack gets hit by a falling airplane or something. And when it's all done, she will want Barack to pay off her bills.

[Ninong]

Superdelegates:

Hillary: 271.5
Barack: 271

Before Super Tuesday in February, Hillary had a lead of 107 superdelegates over Barack. They are now virtually dead even.

Barack picked up 9 more superdelegates today, including one who switched from Hillary. I believe that makes about a dozen of Hillary's superdelegates who have switched to Barack. I don't believe any of Barack's superdelegates have switched to Hillary.

33 pledged delegates needed (for a majority of pledged delegates)
160 total delegates needed for the nomination

Adios, Hillary.

[Ninong]

Hillary's game plan: Hillary could win West Virginia next Tuesday by 25 points. She will then take the stage to proclaim that she is "more electable" than Barack because she does better among "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans" (without college degrees). That's the only contest next Tuesday and it will be a blowout for her.

The following Tuesday, May 20, Hillary will win Kentucky in a major landslide -- possibly by more than 35 points. Oregon should go for Barack by about 8-10 points. Oregon has a mail-only primary. Bill and Hillary will go nuts after Hillary's overwhelming victory in Kentucky. They will declare that Barack is fading and that the tide has turned in favor of Hillary. Hillary will claim that she is the comeback kid and that she has taken back the momentum from Barack.

Barack's game plan: Barack is only 33 delegates shy of having a majority of pledged delegates. Between West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon, he should pick up at least 53 pledged delegates. At this point he will have a lead in pledged delegates that Hillary cannot overtake even if she wins 100% of the vote in the remaining contests. He will have a lead in superdelegates and he will have a lead in the popular vote. He will then announce that it is time for him to concentrate all of his efforts on defeating John McCain.

After the May 20 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon, there is Puerto Rico on June 1 and Montana and South Dakota on June 3. Puerto Rico is getting tighter. Just a few weeks ago Hillary had a 55 point lead but the latest polls show her ahead by only about 15 points there. No one bothers to poll Montana or South Dakota. Barack should win both of those states by about 10-12 points.

Even if no more superdelegates declare for Barack between now and June 3, he will still have a lead in every category: pledged delegates, superdelegates and popular vote. Without counting on a single additional superdelegate between now and then, he will only need about 70 total delegates for the nomination (excluding Florida and Michigan).

However, I expect at least another dozen superdelegates to declare for Barack between now and June 3 and then after the June 3 primaries, I expect the leadership of the Democratic party to ask the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to commit to one candidate or the other within the next two weeks. It's quite likely that a compromise will have been reached on Florida and Michigan by May 31. No matter how you award the Florida and Michigan delegates, Barack will still have a lead. He will have a lead in popular vote, too, even if you include Florida. You can't count Michigan's popular vote for Hillary without giving Barack credit for part of the popular vote from Michigan.

It is mathematically impossible for Hillary to overtake Barack in delegates or popular vote between now and June 3. Her only chance at the nomination is if something disastrous happens to Barack in the next three weeks that would cause virtually all of the uncommitted superdelegates, plus a large number of Barack's superdelegates, to commit to Hillary, giving her the nomination over Barack even though he won both the pledged delegates and the popular vote. That's not going to happen.

Hillary is simply wasting a million bucks a day just to feed her ego and just so that she can take the stage in West Virginia and Kentucky to celebrate her glorious victory, thanks to "hard-working Americans, white Americans" (without college degrees) and white women over 80. After the Oregon results are reported Tuesday night, May 20, the audience will be leaving the theatre but Hillary will still be on the stage.

[Ninong]

Update:

Barack now leads Hillary in every category, including superdelegates (276-271.5). Barack picked up nine superdelegates Friday and five Saturday. Since the North Carolina primary last Tuesday, Barack has picked up 21 new superdelegates. Hillary has picked up a net gain of only two. That's because she is continuing to lose superdelegates to Barack. Yesterday, for example, Hillary picked up a new superdelegate in Massachusetts but she lost two in the Virgin Islands to Barack.

Magic number: 155 (That's how many total delegates Barack needs for the nomination.)

[Ninong]

International Crisis Group

Robert Malley was one of the hundreds of experts who provide informal advice to the Obama Campaign. Malley works for the International Crisis Group. As Malley puts it, "My job with the International Crisis Group is to meet with all sorts of savory and unsavory people and report on what they say. I've never denied whom I meet with; that's what I do."

The reason I bring this up is because the right-wing blogosphere is going nuts over the claim that "one of Barack's advisers has been meeting with Hamas." Because of the distraction this has caused, Malley has decided to step down as an "informal adviser" to the Obama Campaign.

Obama Campaign spokesperson, Ben LaBolt is quoted in The Times (of London) as saying: "Malley has, like hundreds of other experts, provided informal advice to the campaign in the past. He has no formal role in the campaign and he will not play any role in the future."

Obama's position on Hamas is no different than McCain's position on Hamas and McCain knows it, yet McCain said it is "very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president. If Senator Obama is favored by Hamas I think people can make judgments accordingly."

John McCain is such a classy guy. Way to go, "Punk."

According to "The Whispers," John McCain's high school yearbook, his nickname was the "Punk." His other nickname was "McNasty." That was at the exclusive Episcopal High School in Alexandria, Virginia, where the current annual tuition is $38,000. The annual tuition in 1954, the year McCain graduated, was $1,400, which was big bucks 54 years ago.

McCain was not voted "most likely" anything. The best he did was to come in second in "Thinks He's Hardest" -- a knock on his assumed tough-guy persona. It must have been difficult being a tough guy in 1954 if you weighed only 127 lbs dripping wet.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by Ninong

John Edwards Voted For Barack Obama

During a discussion on MSNBC's Morning Joe program this morning, John Edwards clearly said, "I just voted for him on Tuesday..." His wife Elizabeth reportedly voted for Hillary Clinton.

There is absolutley no question that Edwards said "him." I replayed it four times. Some people are saying that he said "I just voted for 'em on Tuesday..." He did not say that. He clearly said "him."

Edwards also said that he will eventually endorse the person he voted for this past Tuesday when the time is right.

Edwards Now Says He Didn't Say "Him"

You can listen to the very brief clip of Edwards clearly saying, "I just voted for him on Tuesday."

Him?

"I said I voted for 'em,'" Edwards said in an interview shortly afterwards with USA TODAY. "I'm a Southerner. ... It wasn't meant to be male or female."

That's ridiculous! I'm a Southerner, too, and Edwards clearly said "him." Besides, we only use "'em" when referring to "them" or "him," never when referring to "her." It's a moot point because he very clearly said "him." It could have been a slip of the tongue or perhaps he misspoke, but he clearly said "him."

I would find it extremely surprising if Edwards voted for Hillary Clinton after what Edwards said about Clinton during the debates, especially the part about Hillary accepting money from all the special interest groups. And just a week or so ago, Edwards accused Hillary of practicing "old politics."

Elizabeth has recently praised Hillary's health care plan, saying that she liked Hillary's version better than Barack's version. It's quite possible that Elizabeth voted for Hillary. In fact, it's much more likely that Elizabeth voted for Hillary and John voted for Barack than the other way around, and we know that they voted for different candidates. Unless Elizabeth wrote in her husband's name, like Cindy McCain did back in 2000.

P.S. -- Elizabeth Edwards is a professional white woman (an attorney) almost exactly the same age as Hillary. This demographic is extremely pro-Hillary. They can't help themselves. It's personal.

[Ninong]

Edwards Is Clearly Backing Obama

On CBS' Face the Nation today, John Edwards said it's over and sent a signal to the Clinton campaign:

John Edwards, a former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, cautioned Sunday that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton “has to be really careful that she’s not damaging our prospects” by staying in the contest against Senator Barack Obama.

[Ninong]

Clinton Campaign Is $20 Million In Debt

This is ridiculous! She's spending money like a drunken sailor -- a hard-working, white American drunken sailor.

Remember when her campaign bragged that they raised $10 million during the 24 hour period following the Pennsylvania primary? And then she has loaned her campaign another $6.425 million of her own money since then, too. And that's on top of the previous $5 million personal loan.

Here's the rub: she expects Barack to pay off most of her debt as part of her surrender terms. But in the meantime, she's spending money at a rate of about $1 million a day. And some people inside her campaign are saying privately that her goal now is the VP spot on the ticket.

We don't want her in the VP spot but if she insists that she wants it, then Barack has no choice but to let her have it. What a revolting development this is! If she makes it plain that she would like the VP spot and then Barack doesn't let her have it, all the white women in this country that have been supporting her would throw a hissy fit and either vote for McCain or stay home.

The way she has conducted herself during this campaign, she doesn't deserve anything! Period! The worst thing Barack could do from the standpoint of going up against the Republicans in the fall would be to put Hillary on the ticket. He needs to talk her into something else instead. Anything else.

She's going to hold a gigantic victory celebration in Charleston, West Virginia Tuesday night to gloat over her tremendous victory over Barack in West Virginia, where "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans" chose the white girl over the black guy. Big deal! And no doubt she will do a repeat performance the following Tuesday in Louisville, Kentucky.

While she's doing her victory dance in Kentucky, Barack will be in Oregon announcing that the race is over and he is concentrating on defeating John McCain in November.

[Ninong]

Update:

Magic number: 150 (That's how many total delegates Barack needs for the nomination.)

Barack's lead over Hillary in total delegates: 175.5

He's picking up new superdelegates right and left.

Hillary will get on stage tomorrow night and try to tell people that the "tide is turning" and she's more electable but she's wasting her breath. It's all over. Someone close to her has to have the guts to tell her she has no shot at the nomination.

[Ninong]

Update On Indiana And North Carolina

Believe it or not, they're still counting votes in Indiana. Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama is now down to only 1.1%. It is now clear that a much larger number of Republicans than originally thought voted for Clinton in Indiana and in North Carolina.

You can check out all of the mathematical analysis here.

• 1. Hillary Clinton has 644,594 votes and Barack Obama has 630,599 votes
  2. About 83,500 McCain supporters voted for Clinton

Without the interference of the Republicans in the Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack would have won Indiana easily (by at least 6%) and he would have won North Carolina by 22% instead of 15%.

Republicans are even more un-American than we thought.

[Ninong]

Hillary's Practicing Her Big Tide-Is-Turning Speech

The candidate the AP calls a "deluded also-ran" is prepping for her big night. We will all have to avoid turning on the teevee for the next 48 hours, at least. In all of her West Virginia appearances, she has been telling the crowds that their vote will change history and that the "whole world is watching to see what they do." What a bunch of bull crap! Looks like she will take West Virginia by as much as 30 points, not that it makes any difference.

Since Super Tuesday, February 5, Barack has captured 80% of the superdelegates -- the same superdelegates Hillary is counting on to give her the nomination. In the past week alone he has picked up 26 more superdelegates! According to the AP's count, he now has 281 superdelegates to Hillary's 271.5. Hillary has lost quite a few of her committed superdelegates to Barack; he has not lost a single one to her.

Her only hope now is that she can somehow convince the Democratic party that because Barack is black (remember her teevee ad when she made him even blacker?) and because some "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans" refuse to vote for a black candidate, the party should hand her the nomination regardless of who actually won by getting the most delegates.

She will do the same song and dance next Tuesday night in Louisville. That same night Barack will be in Oregon directing his comments at John McCain, his opponent in the general election. Hillary will then demand that the Democratic party give her credit for all of the delegates and all of the popular vote she received in both Florida and Michigan. She hopes that if she is credited with the 328,000 popular votes from Michigan and Barack is credited with zero popular votes from Michigan, then all she needs is a 500,000-vote margin of victory in Puerto Rico on June 1 to overtake Barack in the popular vote. At which point she and Bill will announce that she is the choice of the people and that giving the nomination to anyone else would be a travesty.

P.S. -- As of right now, there are only about 200 uncommitted superdelegates, plus an additional 42 yet to be selected at state party conventions. Because Barack won twice as many states as Hillary -- and some of them by wide margins -- his people will control most of those state conventions and he will get most of those 42 delegates.

[Ninong]

Update:

Magic number: 146

That's how many total delegates Barack needs for the nomination. This is the magic number before the West Virginia primary. Even if he gets only 10 delegates out of West Virginia to Hillary's 18, it won't make any significant difference in her situation but it will drop his magic number to 136.

We'll see tomorrow how many delegates he picked up tonight in West Virginia. He picked up four more superdelegates today. He's picking up superdelegates so fast that it's messing up her game plan to force the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to choose her because she's not black.

For weeks following Hillary's "big" win in Pennsylvania on April 22, the media was spewing out the false impression that the tide had turned in Hillary's favor and that she was "closing the gap." She wasn't closing anything. She has been steadily losing ground. In fact, if you add Hillary's delegate gain from Pennsylvania (12) and her delegate gain from Indiana (4) together you get 16. Barack more than wiped that out with North Carolina alone (17). And he has picked up dozens of new superdelegates since North Carolina.

Hillary, to use the Associated Press' colorful description, is a "deluded has-been" who is pulling a Mike Huckabee because she enjoys the attention.

P.S. -- Apparently John Edwards' name is still on the ballot in West Virginia and he's drawing about 7% of the vote.

[Ninong]

Mississippi's First Congressional District

Democrat Travis Childers has defeated Republican Greg Davis for the open MS-01 seat that has been a "safe" Republican seat for many years. George W. Bush won this district by 25 points in 2004.

Dick Cheney was down here all day yesterday begging people to please vote for the Republican candidate. The GOP ran extremely racist teevee ads featuring Jeremiah Wright's famous "GD America" meltdown and warning voters that a vote for the Democratic candidate was a vote for Barack Obama and his radical agenda. The GOP poured millions into this race and they still lost. And it wasn't even close -- they lost by 8 points.

That's three seats that have switched from the GOP to the Democrats since the mid-term elections: Denny Hastert's old seat in Illinois, Louisiana-06 and now Mississippi-01. All three of those seats have been "safe" Republican seats for decades.

P.S. -- Another significant point about MS-01: It's three-fourths white! The GOP figured it would be a slam dunk. LA-06 is only about three-fifths white. They blamed their loss in LA-06 on a flawed Republican candidate and a heavy African-American turnout.

[Ninong]

Obama Statement on Mississippi Victory

Barack Obama...

I want to congratulate Congressman-elect Travis Childers on winning this special election. By electing Travis in this traditionally overwhelmingly Republican district, the people of Mississippi voted to end the politics of division and distraction, and bring about real change. This is the third special election in recent months that Democrats have won in traditionally Republican areas -- an unmistakable sign that Americans want to make a clean break from the failed Bush policies of the past - and are not looking for four more years of those failed policies from John McCain. I look forward to working with Travis in the months ahead to fix our economy, and make a difference in the lives of America's hardworking families.

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by Ninong

Update:

Magic number: 146

That's how many total delegates Barack needs for the nomination. This is the magic number before the West Virginia primary. Even if he gets only 10 delegates out of West Virginia to Hillary's 18, it won't make any significant difference in her situation but it will drop his magic number to 136.

New Magic Number: 133.5

That's how many delegates Barack needs for the nomination. He currently leads Hillary by 172 total delegates, including a lead in superdelegates of 14. Just before Super Tuesday, February 5, Hillary had a lead of 107 in Superdelegates over Barack.

Barack picked up only 8 pledged delegates in West Virginia but he continues to pick up new superdelegates every day. One new superdelegate who announced for Barack today was John Edwards. The Obama Campaign notified the networks that they might want to be prepared to cover an important announcement live at 5:15 p.m. EDT. They were all trying to guess if it would be an endorsement by Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi or John Edwards. They figured it had to be one of those three to qualify as an important announcement that warranted live coverage. It turned out it was Edwards.

Talk about raining on Hillary's parade! All of the networks led their evening news with the Edwards endorsement of Obama instead of Hillary's spectacular, if totally irrelevant, victory in the tiny state of West Virginia, which apparently counts now that it went for Hillary.

Hillary's surrogates are making their rounds on the teevee talk shows with the absurd talking point that Hillary now has the lead in popular vote. That's a ridiculous fabrication based on the most outrageous math you have ever heard.

Here are the new figures, after adding in West Virginia:

Barack has a lead of 593,610 in popular vote total WITHOUT Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington, Florida or Michigan. Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington are all caucus states and they don't release any official vote totals, just number of delegates. Barack won all four of those caucuses. He won Nevada by one delegate over Hillary even though Hillary had about a five-point advantage in votes cast. It had to do with the way the delegates are allocated.

Barack's lead rises to 703,822 when you add in estimated vote totals for those four caucus states.

Let's add in Florida, just for the heck of it, because Hillary did beat Barack by a huge margin in Florida. Barack's popular vote lead is now 409,060 including Florida but without including Michigan.

It's ridiculous to add in 328,000 votes for Hilary from Michigan while giving Barack zero Michigan votes but that's what the Clinton Campaign is doing. They are adding in both Michigan and Florida, but NOT including Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington, in order to arrive at an imaginary lead of 29,471 for Hillary. Even if you give Hillary credit for her 328,000 Michigan votes and give Barack zero Michigan votes, he still has a lead of 80,751 if you include Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington. And even that figure is absurd because it doesn't give him credit for any votes from Michigan.

We shouldn't even be talking about the popular vote anyway because the only thing that counts is delegates. However, Hillary is hoping that by running up a large popular vote advantage in Puerto Rico and by denying Barack any popular vote from Michigan, she can claim to have the lead in popular vote total on June 4. That's why she is refusing to drop out until after Montana and South Dakota vote on June 3.

Vaya con Dios, Hillary.

P.S. -- Here's another reason it makes no sense whatsoever to even think about considering the popular vote in any way, shape or form: many states have caucuses instead of primaries. By their very nature, caucuses produce a much, much smaller number of participants. Barack won all of the caucuses except one. In Iowa, for example, he won by a wide margin, which was reflected in his delegate award from that state, but if you add up the total number of people who actually showed up to vote in the Iowa caucus, it's not all that many. So comparing so-called popular vote totals from caucus states (assuming they even give out official figures) with popular vote totals from primary states is like comparing apples and watermellons.

[Ninong]

Calif. State Supreme Court Rules Ban On Same-Sex Marriage Unconstitutional

I have a feeling this ruling, which takes effect in 30 days, will be a hot topic of discussion and affect the general election campaign, especially in California. A lot depends on how Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger reacts.

There is a petition drive to put a proposition on the November ballot in California that would amend the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage. If that ballot measure passes, it would negate the court's decision. Either way, it will drive turnout in California. I would be shocked if McCain carried California because of this but you never know.

This is something the various polling organizations will no doubt start polling immediately.

This was a 4-3 decision. The California State Supreme Court has six Republicans and one Democrat -- six members were appointed by Republican governors and one by a Democrat. It is a much more conservative court now than it was in years past, especially when Rose Bird was chief justice.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has twice vetoed same-sex marriage bills, citing a ballot initiative approved by more than 60 percent of the state's voters in 2000 that reaffirmed California's opposite-sex-only marriage law. That initiative was not a constitutional amendment, which requires more signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Suits similar to those that went before the California Supreme Court have been filed in other states, but only the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court has ruled that the state's constitution gives gay and lesbian couples the right to marry.

Courts in Vermont and New Jersey have found their states' marriage laws discriminatory but left the remedy up to state legislatures, which opted in both cases for civil unions for same-sex couples rather than marriage. A similar ruling by the Hawaii Supreme Court in 1993 was overturned by a ballot initiative.

P.S. -- The decision was written by Chief Justice Ron George, a conservative Republican.

[Ninong]

Gov. Schwarzenegger "Respects Court's Decision"

This could make a very big difference in California. Schwarzenegger is enormously popular, for a Republican, and his acceptance of the court's decision and, even more importantly, his opposition to a constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage will cause no end of grief to the McCain Campaign's efforts to use this as a wedge issue in California in November.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger released the following statement today regarding the state Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage:

“I respect the Court’s decision and as Governor, I will uphold its ruling. Also, as I have said in the past, I will not support an amendment to the constitution that would overturn this state Supreme Court ruling.”