[Ninong]

Obama Wins Big in All Three Primaries Today

Barack Obama is racking up impressive wins in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. Hillary Clinton is speaking in El Paso, Texas in an effort to hold onto her lead among Hispanics in Texas. She said nothing whatsoever about the Potomac primaries. It was as if nothing had happened.

Obama is speaking in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin and Hawaii vote next week. Hillary is obviously conceding Wisconsin and moving on to her so-called brick wall states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for Hillary, it will be all over before the Pennsylvania primary.

Obama's substantial lead in elected delegates is now more than enough to put him ahead of Hillary in total delegates in spite of her current lead in announced superdelegates. Right now Obama has a lead of about 125 elected delegates. There is no way that Hillary can overtake his lead in elected delegates. It's possible that even if Hillary just barely wins Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama will enter the convention with a lead of about 200 elected delegates. The superdelegates are not going to give the nomination to Hillary if she is trailing Obama by 150-200 elected delegates.

Virginia, 99% of precincts, Obama 64%, Clinton 35%.
D.C., 98% of precincts, Obama 75%, Clinton 24%.
Maryland, 44% of precincts, Obama 62%, Clinton 35%.

[SPasse]

Hi All,

Republicans for Obama http://www.republicansforobama.org

Regards,

Scott

[Ninong]

Obama Leads Clinton in Total Delegate Count

In spite of Hillary Clinton's substantial lead in superdelegates, Barack Obama now has the lead in total delegates.

CNN: Obama 1,215, Clinton 1,190
AP: Obama 1,223, Clinton 1,198
CBS: Obama 1,242, Clinton 1,175
ABC: Obama 1,232, Clinton 1,205

The reason for the disparity is because the various news organizations employ different methods to count the committed superdelegates. Most require the candidates to submit the actual names of the superdelegates they believe are in their camp and then those people are contacted to confirm their commitment.

More than half of the superdelegates have not yet announced a preference for either candidate. Superdelegates are allowed to change their minds at any time.

According to CNN, one of the previously uncommitted superdelegates will announce his support for Obama at a presser later today. He just happens to be Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign manager.

Obama's victories in yesterday's primaries were so overwhelming that in spite of the closeness of the current total delegate count, I believe Hillary's chances of winning the nomination are extremely slim.

[Ninong]

I wonder how much this is worth today?

I still have my JFK lapel button from the 1960 campaign. It's in mint condition (3-3/8" diameter).

[SPasse]

Ninong,

How about this:



Regards,

Scott

[Ninong]

Clinton Campaign Opening Office in Puerto Rico

The Puerto Rican primary is in June. Looks like Hillary expects to fight all the way to the convention. She obviously expects to win all three primaries on March 4th: Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island. (P.S. -- I forgot about Vermont. Vermont votes on March 4 but Obama has Vermont locked up tight.)

I believe she has a lock on Rhode Island but both Texas and Ohio could be close. A lot depends on what Obama does next week in Wisconsin and Hawaii. He will probably win both states easily, especially Hawaii. That could boost his poll numbers in Texas and Ohio. If Obama should actually win both Texas and Ohio, even if only by one or two percentage points, Clinton will amost certainly be forced to concede.

Looks like Howard Dean and the DNC are waiting to see what happens on March 4th before deciding what to do about Michigan and Florida. They can't possibly seat Michigan. They asked all of the candidates to pull out of Michigan and all of them did except Hillary. None of the candidates campaigned in Michigan and all of them except Hillary had their names removed from the ballot. You can't give Hillary the Michigan delegates. Her name was the only name on the ballot.

Florida is different in that the primary date was set by the Republican-controlled state legislature. All of the candidates' names were on the ballot. I can see seating Florida without having them vote all over again but not Michigan. The fairest solution would be to have both states vote again in a party-sponsored primary. Obama might win Michigan this time around and he would at least come closer to Hillary in Florida.

Bubba is putting intense pressure on superdelegates to announce for Hillary. It's all part of the game but it's kinda like sausage: you wouldn't eat it if you saw them make it.

P.S. -- I couldn't find my JFK campaign button anywhere online. I found the regular, smaller, Kennedy-Johnson campaign button with a joint photo of JFK and LBJ but not mine. My campaign button was issued prior to the convention when he was still campaigning for the nomination.

I like that Republicans-for-Obama button. Maybe I'll get one for my brother-in-law.

[Ninong]

Mitch McConnell had a funny line last night:

"The Democrats are down to two candidates, a New York senator who was born in Illinois and an Illinois senator who was apparently born in a manger."

[zhenya]

Originally Posted by Ninong

I like that Republicans-for-Obama button. Maybe I'll get one for my brother-in-law.

Oh no... I can just see where that is going to take you...

[Ninong]

Originally Posted by zhenya

Oh no... I can just see where that is going to take you...

It was just a passing thought, but then I remembered that he's a gun collector.

[Ninong]

Obama Now Ahead of Hillary in National Polls

National polls that showed Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of Obama just a few days ago now show Obama ahead of Clinton:

Gallup, Feb. 14: Obama 46%, Clinton 45%
Rasmussen, Feb. 14: Obama 49%, Clinton 37%

Gallup, Feb. 11: Clinton 46%, Obama 44%
Rasmussen, Feb. 12: Clinton 44%, Obama 42%

I don't know what to make of that enormous two-day swing in the Rasmussen poll. They're showing a gain of 7% for Obama and a decline of 7% for Clinton. I guess it's possible. The polls have been rather spotty this season, especially when they try to poll "likely voters." They're off on likely voters because they're using outdated data from previous elections to predict which demographics are more likely to vote. This cycle a lot more young people are voting.

[Ninong]

Obama's campaign theme: You gotta have hope!

McCain's campaign theme: Don't get your hopes up.

[SPasse]

Wasn’t Dole’s theme “You Got to Get It Up”

[Ninong]

You're thinking of Bob Dole's Viagra commercials, which were terrible. He was the worst possible spokesman for that product. Then they switched to Rafael Palmeiro right after Dole did that really stupid Pepsi Super Bowl commercial where he's sitting in a chair six feet away from the TV screen leering at Britney Spears (the younger, trimmer, less insane version) dance to a Pepsi commercial and he's telling his trusty dog, that is sitting beside him, "Whoa, boy." It was a sick commercial that only Vladimir Nabokov could have written.

P.S. -- Now that June Allyson has passed away, maybe Dole could be a Depends spokesman, but he better hurry before Wilfred Brimley beats him to it.

[Ninong]

Superdelegate Trends

Since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 13 new superdelegates and Hillary has had a net loss of 3.

Rep. John Lewis of Georgia, a Democratic superdelegate who previously endorsed Hillary Clinton, has announced his intention to vote for Obama at the convention. However, he draws this fine distinction: He's voting for Obama because his district went heavily for Obama in the Georgia primary but he hasn't dropped his endorsement of Clinton. He still supports her, he's just not voting for her. I wonder what Bill thinks about that?

[Ninong]

Some Delegates Are 'Second-Class Delegates'

How can you tell if a delegate is a first-class delegate or a second-class delegate? Well, for starters, "superdelegates are not second-class delegates," according to Joel Ferguson, who will be a superdelegate only if Michigan is seated. Mr. Ferguson is also Michigan state co-chairman of Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Mr. Ferguson went on to explain that, "The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic."

Is Texas still considered a red state? I think so. Will their delegates be considered 'second-class delegates?' That depends on whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton is the winner on March 4th.

So far Barack Obama has won 22 contests (20 states plus D.C. and the Virgin Islands) to only 11 for Hillary Clinton. However, the 11 states that Clinton won are "significant" states, whereas the ones Barack Obama won are not "significant," except for maybe Illinois. Obama leads in the total popular vote but that doesn't mean anything because many of those people live in states that are insignificant because they usually vote Republican.

How many more people associated with the Clinton campaign are going to make idiotic statements like this before the race is over? This is downright embarrassing.

P.S. -- Pledged delegates won so far: Barack Obama 1,116; Hillary Clinton 985; John Edwards 26. Apparently most of Obama's delegates are 'second-class delegates.'

[Ninong]

Texas Presidential Primary, March 4, 2008

Both the Republicans and the Democrats hold their primary in Texas on March 4, 2008. However, the rules adopted by the Texas Democratic Party to award delegates are so convoluted that it may be some time before we know exactly how many delegates Clinton and Obama receive.

However, that's not the point of this post. Here's the point of this post, from the official Texas Democratic Party website:

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

Texas will hold a presidential primary on Tuesday, March 4, 2008. The Primary will be open to any registered Texas voter who does not vote in another party's primary and who does not attend another party's political convention.

That means that crossover voting is allowed! What are the possibilities here as I see them? Hmmm...

John McCain is the virtual nominee of the Republican party. He's not all that popular with his party's conservative base, so we can expect many Texas Republican conservatives to vote for Huckabee to register their displeasure with McCain.

What about McCain's strong suit, the fact that he usually attracts more independents and Democrats than your typical GOP candidate? Well, with Obama in the race on the Democratic side, many of those independents and Republican-leaning Democrats will probably be tempted to vote for Obama instead of McCain for a couple of reasons. McCain already has the nomination wrapped up and maybe they actually prefer Obama. Or maybe they intend to vote for McCain in the general election but they fear that the Democratic candidate may win in the general election and they would prefer Obama over Clinton. So they vote for Obama in the primary because he's their second choice in the general.

Or... And here's the wildcard: what if Republicans choose to vote in the Democratic primary for Obama just because they can't stand Hillary?

[Ninong]

Hawaii Caucus and Wisconsin Primary Tomorrow

Obama will win Hawaii in a breeze and he will probably win Wisconsin. It would take a New Hampshire-style surprise for Hillary to win Wisconsin at this point.

If Obama wins both Hawaii and Wisconsin, that will give him ten straight victories over Clinton. That would only add to his air of invincibility and increase his standing in the polls in Texas and Ohio, but especially Texas.

If Clinton should pull off a win in Wisconsin, it would do wonders for her chances of holding onto both Texas and Ohio but I don't expect that to happen. I expect Obama to win Wisconsin by at least 5 points and Hawaii by at least 10 points.

The other unknown in Texas is the extent to which the Latino vote will turn out for Clinton compared to the black vote turnout for Obama. We know that Obama gets 75-85% of the black vote and that Clinton gets 60-65% of the Latino vote. She also has an advantage of at least 12 points or more among white female voters and a slight edge among elderly voters. Obama is now drawing more white male voters than Clinton, meaning that he has picked up the majority of the John Edwards base.

Which voters do you think are more motivated this time, blacks or Latinos? Will Latinos turn out in larger numbers this time than they usually do? Or will black voters turn out in larger numbers than they usually do? I think it's more historic for black voters.

I think Obama has a very good chance to beat Clinton in Texas, especially if he wins both Hawaii and Wisconsin tomorrow.

P.S. -- The most recent Gallup national polls still show Obama with a slim lead over Hillary but what's more interesting is that they're showing an improvement in his support among Hispanics and women.

[Ninong]

Wisconsin and Hawaii Voting Today

Today's the day. I'm hoping Obama takes both Wisconsin and Hawaii today so that he will have even more momentum going into Texas and Ohio. I was surprised to see a poll showing Obama with only a 5 point lead in Hawaii, which is about the same as his average poll lead in Wisconsin. I realize the Democratic party establishment in Hawaii is backing Hillary but I still can't believe she has a real chance of even coming close in Hawaii. Some of the polls have been very erratic this year and I think it's because of the difficulty they are having predicting "likely voters."

Washington state is holding a primary today but it doesn't count for anything on the Democratic side. The Democrats have already awarded all of their delegates based on the caucuses. The Republicans award about half their delegates based on the caucuses and the other half based on the primary. It's really stupid and a waste of money to have both a caucus and a primary. No other state does it that way. We should really do away with caucuses and go with just primaries.

However, if Hillary should happen to win today's meaningless primary in Washington, we will never hear the end of it. She and Mr. Bill will be up there in a flash to declare victory. I hate to say this but they are both getting on my nerves lately. Her campaign has turned a little too negative for me. She's criticizing Barack for the most petty, childish reasons. And now she's running more to the left all of a sudden. You might recall that in the early stages of the campaign she was running what amounted to a general election campaign and portraying herself as the nominee-in-waiting. Now she's pulling out the I'll-do-more-for-you-than-Obama rhetoric. It's almost like Mitt Romney in 1992 when he was running against Ted Kennedy for the U.S. Senate. And Bill is pretending to be upset that "a lot of good candidates" have been forced from the race (the Democratic race) by Obama's hopemongering. Obama delivers speeches, Hillary delivers solutions, according to Bill. Words don't matter, unless we're talking about the definition of is.

Fearless prediction: Obama will win Wisconsin by 7 points and Hawaii by 12.

P.S. -- Delegate update: The official NBC News hard count for the Democrats is Obama 1,116, Clinton 985. There are 44 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN and DC. NBC estimates those as a 24-20 split for Obama. The superdelegate total is Clinton 257, Obama 184 for a grand total of Obama 1,324, Clinton 1,262.

[Ninong]

Interesting Poll Results Released Today

Survey USA
Virginia-Pres......McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%.
Virginia-Pres......Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 45%.

Iowa-Pres.........McCain (R) 52%, Clinton (D) 41%.
Iowa-Pres.........Obama (R) 51%, McCain (R) 41%.

There are a few states where Clinton does better than Obama against McCain but in many states he beats McCain by almost the same margin that McCain beats her. In those states it is obvious that Obama would pull votes away from McCain's one strong point, his ability to attract independents.

Forget about all the other demographics, I think it is safe to say that everything else being equal, Obama will draw the majority of independents against McCain and McCain would draw the majority of independents against Hillary. That's going to be a very significant factor in the general election. It's possible, even probable, that Hillary could beat McCain because I don't think any Republican can win the White House this time around but her victory would probably be by no more than three or four percentage points at best. Obama might be able to beat McCain by eight percentage points in the popular vote and carry more than two-thirds of the electoral college votes.

[Ninong]

Obama Beat Clinton in Wisconsin in a Blowout!

58% - 41%

It wasn't even close. This gives him 9 straight wins and in another couple of hours, after Hawaii reports, it will be 10 straight.

Hillary hasn't had a victory since Super Tuesday, February 5th. The next primaries are on March 4th.

With the momentum Obama has, he could very well win both Texas and Ohio. I think his best shot is in Texas but I wouldn't rule out Ohio either at this point. Hillary probably has a lock on Rhode Island, for what it's worth.

Obama's margin of victory in Wisconsin was much greater than any of the latest polls predicted. And this was in a state where Hillary had a lead of more than 20 points just six weeks ago. She still had a lead of 10 points three weeks ago. I suspect that we might see the same thing in Texas and Ohio. The polls are showing Hillary with a very slim lead in Texas (2 points) and a double-digit lead in Ohio. Given two weeks time, Obama could easily close those gaps, and then some. This whole thing could be over on March 5th.