Barack Obama for President

[SPasse]

OK,

I think I am going to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate for the first time in my voting life, assuming that the Democratic candidate is Barack Obama.

If it comes down to choice between Clinton and McCain, I will vote for McCain. (Anyone but Hillary)

Flame proof underwear is on…

Regards,

Scott

[Ninong]

Welcome aboard!

I will vote for either Barry Obama or Hillary Clinton. The momentum is definitely in Obama's favor right now but I have no idea if that will be enough to make him the nominee.

Neither Obama nor Clinton will have a majority of pledged votes (primary & caucus votes) going into the convention. That's where the 796 superdelegates come in. I don't think this is going to be a good situation no matter which one comes out on top.

Technically the superdelegates are free to vote for whomever they choose. In this particular convention, it might be better if each of them voted in accordance with the vote in their district or state (those that are elected officials). About 40% of the superdelegates have already gone on the record and announced a preference. Clinton has a lead right now among announced superdelegates.

Obama will do well over the next week or so. He was down here today speaking at Tulane. Bill is due to come down to speak on Hillary's behalf. I'm seeing at least three Obama TV commercials an hour now. And almost no Clinton commercials. I believe Obama might carry Louisiana. And he will probably carry most of the caucus states between now and the big Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries. Right now Clinton is ahead in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio but because of the way the Democrats use proportional allocation of delegates, it won't make much difference.

Not counting the superdelegates, Obama and Clinton may be in a virtual tie going into the convention.

You're too young to remember Adlai Stevenson and Estes Kefauver but I'm old enough to remember the 1952 and 1956 conventions. Even in 1960, JFK didn't go over the top until West Virginia cast their votes. I was shocked when JFK chose LBJ as his vice-presidential running mate. Really shocked!

I expect the ticket to be Clinton-Obama unless something drastic happens in the next week to move Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania into the Obama camp. I don't think there is any chance at all of an Obama-Clinton ticket.

Obama would be an easier candidate for the Democrats to run against John McCain. I'm not saying Clinton couldn't beat him but it would sure make the campaign a lot easier if Obama is the nominee.

BTW, Fox News ran a story on McCain today and the crawler at the bottom of the screen identified him as "Sen. John McCain, D-AZ."

P.S. -- I have no idea what's going to happen to the delegates pledged to John Edwards. Do you think he's holding back until late April to try to make a deal with either Obama or Clinton? That assumes that his delegates would listen to him. They're probably obligated to vote for him on the first ballot but not after that. Usually when a candidate publicly withdraws from the race, his delegates are released. I think. I wonder what Edwards wants? Maybe one of the other two candidates should promise to make him Secretary of Labor or something? Then he could keep reusing his "son of a millworker" speech.

The Democrats are going to try to talk one of the two front-runners into pulling out in favor of the other one. That's not going to happen unless Clinton is the obvious front-runner and Obama agrees to step down in exchange for the vice-presidential spot on the ticket. Clinton will not step down unless she's obviously trailing by at least two or three hundred delegates going into June and I don't expect that to happen. I think there's a good chance we will see a brokered convention for the first time in your lifetime.

[SPasse]

Ninong,

Welcome Aboard, well maybe temporarily. At least until the Neocons are kicked out of the Republican Party.

Funny you should mention JFK, lots of parallels…

“I expect the ticket to be Clinton-Obama” Well that could be a great launching platform for Obama in 4 or 8 years.

I guess I dislike Hillary on a personal level. If the young people continue their groundswell of support, I think Obama has a good shot at the Presidency, if he gets the nomination.

A two term presidency looks to be a problem. I think that the economy is going to take such a dive that short of another FDR, being president during the next four years is going to be a no-win scenario.

Regards,

Scott

[Ninong]

I guess you noticed that John McCain was booed at CPAC today. And that was even after they had handed out written instructions asking their members to please not boo John McCain. Ann Coulter, who was noticeably NOT invited to speak at CPAC this year, has promised that if McCain is the GOP nominee, she will actively campaign for Hillary.

McCain's message: "I'm a conservative, really."

How is McCain's pending coronation going down with the GOP establishment? Well, take at look at this screen capture from FOX Noise, the official propaganda wing of the RNC and where Karl Rove is now employed:



Fox does this whenever they have to run a story about a Republican they don't like.

P.S. -- They don't like McCain because he was against Bush's tax cuts. He voted against them twice! And they don't like him because he teamed up with Russ Feingold to sponsor McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform. And they don't like him because he's absolutely, positively against torture under any and all circumstances! And they don't like him because he's in favor of government-funded embryonic stem-cell research. And they don't like him because he teamed up with Ted Kennedy to sponsor McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform, otherwise known as Amnesty International. It was strongly supported by President Bush but rejected by 80% of the Republicans in the Senate. It failed but it had the support of 80% of the Democrats and only 20% of the Republicans. Bush was unable to persuade his own party to go along with his immigration reform. The Democrats and the few Republicans who favored the President's Immigration Reform bill were unable to break the GOP filibuster. It takes 60 votes in the Senate to move any bill to a vote if the opposition wants to block it. And, unlike Mike Huckabee, McCain does not favor Constitutional Amendments to outlaw abortion and gay marriage.

[Ninong]

Assuming Obama is the Democratic nominee, I wonder who would make the best vice-presidential candidate?

In McCain's case, he has to be very careful in choosing his running mate because there's a pretty decent statistical possibility that he may not live out his term. And, if elected, he may not run for reelection, making his vice president the de facto nominee.

P.S. -- The sneakiest possible move on McCain's part would be to name a black or a woman running mate. Maybe even a black woman running mate. Think Colin Powell or Condi Rice. Both of them are damaged goods, especially Rice, but it would still complicate matters for Clinton, if she is the Democratic nominee and especially if it turns into a brutal convention that shuts out Obama. I honestly don't think there is any way Clinton can be the nominee without Obama being the running mate, assuming Clinton beats him in the first place.

[Ninong]

Obama on the war in Iraq vs. McCain on the war in Iraq:

I believe Obama is in a better position to debate McCain on the War in Iraq than Hillary. There will be no ambiguities, no gray areas, no "I didn't think he would really do it" excuses. Obama was against the war from the beginning and he was against the McCain-Bush surge that has done nothing but extend the occupation.

Obama's position is that it should never have been done in the first place and it should be undone as quickly as possible. McCain's position is that the war was a good idea even if we were misled by the criminal Cheney-Bush administration into thinking that Saddam posed an imminent threat and possessed weapons of mass destruction. McCain's only regret is that Donald Rumsfeld was allowed to mismanage the war and dictate the size of the invasion force contrary to the advice of all of the professional military commanders. McCain: Good idea, bad execution. Obama: Bad idea. Period.

McCain on the surge: "It's working, my friends."

Reality: The surge is NOT working. It has not accomplished any of the goals established by the Bush administration. Yes, there has been a reduction in fighting but that's mainly due to the fact that Moqtada al-Sadr called a truce. That truce is set to expire the end of this month but al-Sadr has indicated a willingness to extend it. Al-Sadr is perfectly happy with the way things are going at the moment. He has enormous influence with the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad and he's just biding his time until the infidels leave.

Gen. Petraeus' solution to reduce the Sunni insurgent violence has been to buy them off. We are paying hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes and "salaries" to the "concerned citizens" that were killing our troops just a year ago. We are not only supplying them with weapons and ammunition, we are paying the regular monthly salaries of the Sunni irregulars who are now fighting al-Qaida instead of us. It should come as no surprise that this little arrangement is not looked upon with approval by the Shiites.

The Iraqis have made virtually no political progress whatsoever since the surge began in January 2007. The so-called reconciliation bill passed without the approval of the Sunnis and it does nothing to satisfy them. There is still no oil revenue sharing bill. Hey, they can't even pass a budget! They're still at each other's throats. They're just waiting for us to leave so that they can get at each other again.

Iraq is still a disaster and Afghanistan is getting worse by the day. Yet Condi Rice had the nerve to say yesterday that she sees signs of progress in Afghanistan. Condi is delusional. And she lies a lot, too!

[almostdiva]

I have no idea what's going to happen to the delegates pledged to John Edwards. Do you think he's holding back until late April to try to make a deal with either Obama or Clinton? That assumes that his delegates would listen to him. They're probably obligated to vote for him on the first ballot but not after that. Usually when a candidate publicly withdraws from the race, his delegates are released. I think

Ninong,

Both Edwards and Romney "suspended" their campaigns. So they still control their delegates -- beyond the 1st ballot, I believe. Clever trick, eh? One of the few things that works the same in both parties when it comes to the nominating process.

Florida and Michigan Dem delegates anyone?? They might put Hilary over the top.

[Ninong]

Rebecca,

Good point! I forgot that both of them "suspended" their campaigns.

Hillary will try to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations. That won't fly unless she is already assured of the nomination without counting their votes.

Howard Dean is floating the idea of having Michigan and Florida hold new, party-sponsored primaries that would count. That may be the best way out. Not counting Florida and Michigan will just piss off voters in those two very important states. Chances are that if Michigan and Florida were to vote all over again, Obama would do better than he did originally. Hillary might still carry them but it really doesn't make a lot of difference because of the way the Democrats assign delegates proportionately.

As it stands right now, the Democratic nominee will be chosen by the superdelegates. That's not a very good idea, especially if the superdelegates choose the candidate who has fewer pledged delegates.

The only way out of this mess is for either Obama or Clinton to gain a substantial lead in pledged delegates (without counting ANY superdelegates) prior to the convention and then for the other candidate to step aside. That may not happen. It's quite possible that they could be within 100 delegates of each other going into the convention. If Obama is trailing, the party will probably try to talk him into stepping down in exchange for the VP spot on the ticket. If Hillary is trailing, then they have a problem. She's not interested in the VP spot and she may refuse to step aside.

If the Democrats go into the convention with Hillary trailing and then she gets the nomination thanks to the superdelegates, that's not going to go down very well for a lot of obvious reasons.

If it appears that Obama got shafted, then the Democrats have a problem with his base, especially black voters. If it appears that Hillary got shafted, they have a problem with women voters. Both Obama and Hillary are already twisting each other's positions and a prolonged battle for the nomination is not in the best interests of the Democratic party, especially now that the Republicans have decided on McCain as their nominee. Another advantage McCain has is that the GOP convention is after the Democratic convention, so he gets to see who's on the Democratic ticket before he decides on a VP running mate. If Obama is the one who got shafted by the Democrats, McCain could choose a black running mate. If Hillary is the one who got shafted, he could choose a woman as his running mate.

[Ninong]

Obama spoke at Tulane yesterday, so Bubba's speaking at Dillard today. Dillard is a black university.

I think Obama will beat Billary in Louisiana tomorrow. For one thing, I'm seeing virtually no Clinton commercials on TV and non-stop Obama commercials.

[Ninong]

I voted for Barry Obama today. Last week I would have voted for Hillary but I voted for Obama because I believe he has a better chance of defeating McCain in November. There are really only minor differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It is much more important to me that the Democratic party wins the White House in November. Obama seems to do better than Clinton among independents and he doesn't motivate the crazies on the GOP right-wing to go nuclear the way Clinton does.

If Hillary ends up winning the nomination, I hope Obama is her running mate. I will vote for the Democratic nominee in November no matter who he or she may be. If Obama is the nominee, I don't expect Hillary to be on the ticket.

I expect John McCain to be the Republican nominee. I don't see how the GOP establishment can stop him at this point. I don't think it matters how many Southern states Huckabee wins, he and Romney combined won't have enough votes to block McCain. McCain will have more than enough votes to lock up the nomination before the end of next month.

[SPasse]

Hi All,

Well it looks like the night is going to Obama, by bigger margins than predicted.

I also looks like the financial backing is moving to Obama. Clinton had to cough up 5 million of her own money recently.

Ninong, you wrote “I voted for Obama because I believe he has a better chance of defeating McCain in November.”

Well in my case I am a lot more likely to vote for Obama over a Republican candidate.

Some of my friends who are rather on the conservative side can also see themselves voting for Obama. These are people who have never voted for a Democrat before…

Regards,

Scott

[Ninong]

Well it looks like the night is going to Obama, by bigger margins than predicted.

He won the Louisiana primary and the caucuses in Washington, Nebraska and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hillary is expected to win the Maine caucuses tomorrow but it could be close.

Obama will win the D.C. and Maryland primaries Tuesday and he might even win Virginia. Virginia will be very close. If he wins Virginia, that momentum may be enough to put him ahead in Ohio and Texas. If he wins Virginia, Ohio and Texas, it's game over. Hillary cannot be the Democratic party's nominee based on the votes of the superdelegates. That would be a disaster for the party. It's not going to happen. Right now Hillary has a lead of about 50 votes among superdelegates who have committed themselves publicly but none of the superdelegates are pledged and any of them can change their minds at any time.

Barack has a clear lead now among pledged delegates. We won't know exacly how much of a lead until they get finished allocating the delegates from today's voting. He probably picked up a net gain of about 40 delegates today.

The DNC has to come to some decision soon about what to do about Michigan and Florida. They can't let the issue of seating Michigan and Florida end up as a floor fight. Obama will not allow Michigan and Florida to be seated unless he already has the nomination in hand before the convention. Right now it's looking more and more likely that he just might be able to pull that off. I know that if his momentum keeps up through next Tuesday, especially if he wins Virginia, then he has a good chance of overtaking Hillary in Ohio and Texas. That would be the end of her candidacy right there because the superdelegates would be forced to vote for him. They couldn't possibly give the nomination to her if he's 150 votes ahead in pledged delegates.

[Ninong]

Gen. Petraeus' solution to reduce the Sunni insurgent violence has been to buy them off. We are paying hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes and "salaries" to the "concerned citizens" that were killing our troops just a year ago. We are not only supplying them with weapons and ammunition, we are paying the regular monthly salaries of the Sunni irregulars who are now fighting al-Qaida instead of us. It should come as no surprise that this little arrangement is not looked upon with approval by the Shiites.

Uh-oh! Ray Charles could have seen this coming:

Some of the "concerned citizens" (former Sunni insurgents) that we have been arming have started attacking the Iraqi police.

Here.

Gen. Petraeus has to tell these guys to cool it until after we leave. And, yeah, I realize that's a French news service but we're buddies with France now that Sarko the American is in office, especially now that he has a new hottie wife.

[Ninong]

Obamamania swept Maine today!

Obama won the Maine caucuses in a landslide, 59%-41%. As recently as a few days ago, polls showed Hillary with a lead in Maine. Looks like Obama is set to sweep all of the primaries Tuesday, including Virginia.

As of right now, here is what the pledged delegate count looks like:

Obama -- 986
Clinton -- 924
Edwards -- 26

Clinton has 224 publicly committed superdelegates to 135 who have committed for Obama. Edwards has zero superdelegates.

If you include superdelegates who have announced a preference, Clinton has a total of 1,148 delegates to Obama's 1,121.

John Edwards is playing footsie with both Clinton and Obama right now. He met with Clinton Thursday and he's scheduled to meet with Obama tomorrow. I wish he would keep his mouth shut until after Tuesday's primaries. Obama is going to win big Tuesday with or without an endorsement from Edwards. If Edwards decides to endorse Obama tomorrow, it could cause a backlash among women voters Tuesday. It would look like the all-boys-club ganging up on the one woman in the race.

I don't think Edwards is gunning for the VP spot and I certainly don't think he would make a good VP running mate for Hillary. Obama is the only possible choice as a running mate for Hillary. That question should be irrelevant very soon because I believe Obama is now unstoppable. I have no idea who he should choose as his running mate but I don't think Hillary is interested.

Obama as the Democratic party's nominee sets up another interesting situation. We had in Al Gore a guy who was more liberal than Bill Clinton but who lacked Clinton's natural oratorical skills. He came across as stiff and aloof against good ole boy George W. Bush in 2000. Gore got screwed but that's history at this point. Then in 2004 we had someone more liberal than Gore in John Kerry. He, too, came across as stiff and aloof compared to Aw-shucks Bush. I didn't think it was possible for anybody to lose to Bush in 2004 but I was wrong. I did predict several months before the nomination was clear that Kerry would be the one and that it would be a mistake. At that time he had the most liberal voting record in the Senate, but that was before Barack Obama joined the Senate.

The Democrats will again nominate the most liberal United States Senator as their presidential candidate. The biggest difference is that this one has oratorical skills in abundance compared to either Gore or Kerry. When it comes to IQ, the Democrats will again go with the brainy candidate and the Republicans will stick with the class screw-up. Bush was proud of the fact that he was not qualified for admission to college based on his academic record. He was admitted to Yale as a legacy student because his father and his grandfather were both Yalies. Bush graduated from Yale in the bottom 15% of his class. John McCain is VERY similar to Bush in that both his father and his grandfather were 4-star admirals. McCain graduated from the Naval Academy at the very bottom of his class, fifth from the bottom to be exact. The stunts he pulled would have gotten any other student expelled.

I like our chances this time around a lot better than in 2000 or 2004.



P.S. -- Obama picked up a net gain of 45 delegates over Clinton between yesterday and today: Louisiana, Obama 33-23 over Clinton, Washington, Obama 38-20 over Clinton, Nebraska, Obama 18-8 over Clinton, Virgin Islands, Obama 3-0 over Clinton and Maine, Obama 15-11 over Clinton.

P.P.S. -- Obama even won a Grammy award, beating Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter who were also nominated in the same category.

[Ninong]

Is Colin Powell going to endorse Obama???

Check out this exchange today between Wolf Blitzer and Colin Powell:

BLITZER: Who’s your candidate for President of the United States?

POWELL: I am watching this race with the greatest of interest and I know all of the leading candidates now. I don’t know Mr. Huckabee as well as I know Mr. McCain and Senator Obama and uh and Senator Clinton. But I’m watching this and I will ultimately vote for the person I believe brings to the American people the kind of vision the American people want to see for the next four years. A vision that reaches out to the rest of the world and starts to restore confidence in America. And starts to restore favorable ratings to America, frankly. We’ve lost a lot in recent years.

I’m going to be looking for the candidate that seems to me to be leading a party that is fully in sync with the candidate and the party will also reflect America’s goodness and America’s vision. And I’ll be looking for the candidate that I think will be the most competent candidate. The one who can deal with problems and bring the government together with the Congress to solve these problems. And so I know them all. I’m a Republican but I’m keeping my options open at the moment, and I’m in touch with the candidates. And anybody wants to talk to me about an issue, I’ll do so. But sooner or later, as any other American, I will make my choice.

Translation: Colin Powell is going to endorse Barack Obama for President of the United States! :eek3:

[Ninong]

Democrats Are Involved, Republicans Are Turned Off

Dept. of For-What-It's-Worth:

Earlier this month, 5,000 Republicans gathered around the state of Maine to caucus for their nominee. Yesterday, close to 45,000 Mainers attended the Democratic caucus. The previous record for a Maine Democratic caucus was 17,000.

And in Washington state this past Sunday, less than 15,000 people voted in the Republican caucus compared to 33,000 who voted in the Democratic caucus. Apparently John McCain won the Washington GOP caucus with 26% of the vote. That means that 74% of the voters chose Anybody-but-McCain.

[Ninong]

Obama Projected to Win Big Tomorrow

Just a week ago the polls showed Obama trailing Clinton in Virginia by a couple of points. Today those same polls show Obama ahead of Clinton in Virginia by double digits. It appears that he is set to sweep all three of the primaries tomorrow. There was never much doubt that he would win easily in D.C. and Maryland but Virginia had been polling in Clinton's favor up until a few days ago.

It is unfortunate that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are engaging in personal attacks on each other. Hillary keeps pushing the idea that she has the necessary experience and Barack doesn't and she's ready to lead from Day One. And Barack keeps saying that Hillary represents the past and he represents the future.

First of all, Bill Clinton didn't have any experience to speak of when he ran for president in 1992. He was the governor of a little hick state, that's it. And when Abraham Lincoln ran for president, his only experience in politics was a couple of terms in the House from Illinois. Both Bill Clinton and Abe Lincoln managed to get by in spite of their lack of experience.

It is absurd for Hillary to keep saying that she won the states that are important to Democrats, like California and New York, while Barack won states like Idaho and Nebraska. Wait a minute! We can win California and New York no matter who we run in the general election. If we win Idaho and Nebraska, that would be a real miracle! By even bringing up this topic, Hillary is highlighting her own weakness compared to Barack. He pulls more independents than she does. To imply that Democrats who voted for her may not vote for him in the general election borders on the obscene. Democrats who won't vote for Obama because of his race will be more than made up for by new, younger voters that he will bring into the party and by the independents who will swing Democratic in this coming national election.

For either candidate to imply that the Democratic voters who voted for them won't vote for the Democratic nominee in November is disgusting!

P.S. -- Hillary and Barack will be debating on CNN next week in Texas. Hopefully they will both be civil and not engage in open personal attacks on each other. He's a better public speaker but she's a better debater. If he wins big tomorrow, the momentum could carry him to victories in Texas and Ohio and maybe even Pennsylvania. Right now Hillary is still ahead in the polls in all three of those states but not by more than a few percentage points.

On another point, it appears that Barack has postponed the meeting with John Edwards that was scheduled for today. I think that's a good move. It's too soon for Edwards to say anything one way or the other. I expect Edwards to endorse Obama but I wish he would wait at least until after tomorrow's primaries. I expect Colin Powell to endorse Obama but not until after both political parties have settled on their nominees. I also expect Little Joe Lieberman to be one of John McCain's sponsors at the Republican convention. He will be this year's Zell Miller.

[Ninong]

Hillary Changed Her Campaign Manager

Following her recent string of defeats, Hillary has replaced her campaign manager with another long-time aide. Neither one of these women are really in charge of Hillary's campaign. They're just the office managers who keep the troops in line and schedule the events. Hillary's campaign is being run by Mark Penn. He's the guy calling all the shots.

Penn just held a conference call with reporters during which he made the claim that Barack Obama will turn out to be another Al Gore or John Kerry if he's the Democratic nominee. Here's his logic: Hillary has been trashed so much by the Republican establishment over the past 16 years that there's nothing new they can hit her with but Obama is fresh meat. Wait till they get finished swiftboating him like they did John Kerry.

That's what I call desperation, and it's sad. I wish they would just cool it and let the Republicans make headlines complaining about John McCain's lack of credentials as a conservative. BTW, George Bush's fat little brother, Jeb-Bob, endorsed McCain today.

[Ninong]

Potomac Primaries Today

D.C., Maryland and Virginia hold their primaries today. Barry Obama is expected to win all three. The only real question at this point is the margin of victory in Virginia. A double-digit win by Obama in Virginia would be a public relations nightmare for the Clinton campaign. She must hold on until the March 4th primaries in Ohio and Texas. An impressive Obama victory in Virginia would add to his aura of invincibility.

To tell you the truth, I don't see how Hillary can recover from a double-digit drubbing in Virginia today, which is what I believe is about to happen. If she manages to pull off another New Hampshire surprise and eek out a win, it would do wonders for her campaign, but I don't see that happening. An impressive sweep by Obama today will set him up for a possible win in either Ohio or Texas on March 4th. Pennsylvania comes too late to help Hillary if she loses either Texas or Ohio.

If Obama wins all three primaries today, Hillary will have to win Ohio and Texas by double digits to stay in play. The superdelegates, including many who previously announced for Hillary, will shift to Obama after March 4th unless Hillary wins big in both Ohio and Texas.

[Ninong]

To tell you the truth, I don't see how Hillary can recover from a double-digit drubbing in Virginia today, which is what I believe is about to happen.

Obama Wins VERY BIG in Virginia!!!

With 88% of the precincts reporting, Obama leads Clinton 64% to 35%. As recently as a week ago she was polling 2% ahead of him in Virginia but she's losing tonight by 29 points. Her campaign is finished. Obama will sweep Virginia, D.C. and Maryland tonight and then he will win Wisconsin and Hawaii next week. Even if Clinton manages to win Ohio and Texas on March 4th, her margin of victory will be much less than previously expected.