Hurricane Gustav (P.S. -- And Hurricane Ike)

[Ninong]

Here's another version of the same information:


As of 2:00 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, Aug. 27th, they're predicting Gustav will be a Cat. 3 hurricane when it makes landfall sometime Saturday morning over the western tip of Cuba. They're showing it as still a Cat. 3 at 8 a.m. Monday just southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. That cone of probability covers all of the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The most recent forecast, the one at 2:00 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, has the projected U.S. landfall a good 100 miles east of where it was last night.

These two graphs are both based on official Hurricane Center forecasts. Of the nine independent computer models, at least half of them agree with the official forecast plus or minus 150 miles but one model calls for it to hit Galveston, Texas and another calls for it to hit Panama City, Florida. Those are the two extremes among the various independent computer models.

The 5 p.m. EDT, Wednesday forecast changed the time on that last symbol, the one just southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, from 8 a.m. Monday to 2 p.m. Monday. The projected track is just about the same but that's subject to change over time.

The 11 p.m. EDT, Wednesday forecast made three significant changes: projected landfall was moved back at least 50 to 60 miles to the west of where it was in the 5 p.m. forecast, projected time of landfall is currently 8 p.m. Monday over Grand Isle, LA and maximum intensity has been lowered from 125 mph (strong Cat. 3) to 110 mph (strong Cat. 2, 1 mph less than a Cat. 3). The significance of that is that a Category 3 storm prediction calls for certain events to take place three days prior to landfall (e.g., mandatory evacuation of New Orleans) whereas a Category 2 prediction does not require the same precautions. In any event, the governor of Louisiana has already declared a state of emergency and he has already activated 3,000 National Guard troops with the capability of calling up 5,000 more.

I sure hope the 11 p.m., Wednesday prediction changes tomorrow because the current projected landfall represents a direct hit on New Orleans, and probably a direct pass over me. I don't feel like losing power for an extended period of time in August in Louisiana. Been there, done that, several times. No fun!

The 8 a.m., Thursday prediction moved the projected landfall about another 80 miles to the west, changed the expected date of arrival back to Tuesday morning and changed the intensity back to Category 3. Tuesday morning was the original prediction but then it gradually changed to Monday morning and then Monday night. Now we're back to Tuesday morning but with the projected landfall near Morgan City. Instead of 110 mph, they have moved the wind speed projection back to 115 mph (125 mph was the worst they had predicted at one point yesterday). Category 3 is a wind speed of 111-130 mph.

We're really too far out for an accurate landfall prediction. Once the storm clears both Cuba on the east and the Yucatan on the west and enters the Gulf, then their landfall predictions become a lot more accurate. The various computer models are all over the place right now with one model predicting landfall on the Yucatan and another predicting landfall on the Florida panhandle and the intensity varies widely between the models. The HWRF model (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting, developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Navy, University of Rhode Island and Florida State University), which the National Hurricane Center forecast most closely follows, actually predicts Gustav will be a more dangerous Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 135 mph just before landfall.

The 11 p.m. EDT, Thursday forecast moves projected landfall a little more to the west with the storm predicted to arrive at the Louisiana coast as a Category 3 hurricane around 8 p.m. Monday and then spend the next 22 hours or so dragging along the coast westward before going inland. The chart shows it as a Cat. 2 storm inland but that's a good 50 miles inland and hurricanes lose strength as soon as the eyewall hits land. I think what they're saying is that they expect it to be a Cat. 3 as it drags along the Louisiana coast for close to 24 hours. The difference between a Cat. 2 and a Cat. 3 is that if it's a Cat. 2 storm most parishes will set up local shelters. If it's a Cat. 3 or greater storm, most parishes will not set up local shelters, they will order evacuations instead. Orleans Parish has said that they will order a mandatory evacuation only if it's a Cat. 3 or greater predicted to pass close enough to the city to pose a risk.

Hurricane Katrina was the first time the city of New Orleans ordered an evacuation and the mayor waited too late to order it.

The 8 a.m., Friday advisory doesn't make any big changes except that they have moved the maximum speed back up to 125 mph, predicting that it will reach that intensity as of 2 a.m. Monday. It's still a tropical storm and still over Jamaica. It's projected to be a Category 2 hurricane just before passing over the western tip of Cuba and a Category 3 hurricane just as it enters the Gulf. They're now projecting that it will arrive at the Louisiana coast just south of Morgan City around 2 a.m. Tuesday then drag along the coast westward before moving inland some 22 hours later just east of Lake Charles.

The 11 a.m. Friday advisory now projects landfall near Morgan City, LA six hours later at 8 a.m. Tuesday. Instead of dragging along the coast westward, they now project that the storm will move inland immediately near Morgan City. Wind intensity projections are still the same as the earlier advisory. They predict that it will be a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Wind intensity is projected to reach 125 mph by 2 a.m. Monday.

The 2 p.m. Friday advisory is not much different. Maximum winds have been reduced from 125 mph to 120 mph. The estimated time and location of landfall are unchanged. The next couple of days will be interesting.

The 5 p.m. Friday advisory has moved the maximum winds back up to 125 mph, reaching that intensity at 2 p.m. Sunday. Looks like the estimated time of arrival on the Louisiana coast has been moved up at least eight hours to Monday evening instead of Tuesday morning.

The 8 p.m. Friday advisory is about the same as the previous advisory.

The 11 p.m. Friday advisory has just been posted online. NOAA is now projecting a maximum speed of 135 mph (Cat. 4) as of 8 p.m. Sunday. Estimated landfall location hasn't really changed. Looks like somewhere near Morgan City Monday night.

The 8 a.m. Saturday advisory is about the same as the previous advisory. It has the storm making landfall just west of Morgan City as a Cat. 3 around 2 a.m. Tuesday and then continuing inland on a northwesterly path.

The 11 a.m. Saturday advisory has moved the path about 15 miles to the east bringing it closer to Morgan City. Right now it's a strong Cat. 3 with sustained winds of 125 mph. It is now projected to reach Cat. 4 strength by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is now projected to reach 140 mph winds sometime Sunday. The NHC is predicting winds of 125 mph (strong Cat. 3) at 8 a.m. Monday as the hurricane begins to rake the Louisiana coast before going in just east of Vermillion Bay. Its current projected path will subject all of coastal Louisiana from the mouth of the Mississippi River west close to the Texas border to strong hurricane force winds, especially if it makes landfall with winds around 120 mph.

The 2 p.m. Saturday advisory reports that Hurricane Gustav is currently just south of the western tip of Cuba as a very strong Category 4 (145 mph) storm. It is predicted to be a catastrophic Category 5 storm as it passed over Cuba. Maximum winds are now predicted to reach 160 mph tomorrow morning. It is projected to be a very dangerous Category 4 storm as it nears the Louisiana central coast Monday evening. Depending on how close it comes to the mouth of the Mississippi River and how large it is at the time, we could be experiencing hurricane force winds in my aread for more than 24 hours. Not cool. I will almost certainly lose power again. I need it to move a little more to the west. We're depending on a high that is coming down over the southeast right now to push this thing towards the west as it approaches the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The 5 p.m. Saturday advisory has the storm currently at 150 mph sustained winds with hurricane force winds extending 70 miles and tropical storm force winds extending 175 miles from the center. They're predicting that it will reach Category 5 later today and remain a Category 5 through early Monday morning. Looks like they are now projecting landfall at the southeast Louisiana coast just south of Houma as a strong Category 4 storm. It is then projected to continue on a northwesterly path.

The 8 p.m. Saturday advisory is about the same as the previous advisory. They're still predicting landfall just south of Houma, LA around 2 p.m. Monday with winds of 145 mph. New Orleans has ordered a mandatory evacuation of the westbank effective 8 a.m. Sunday and a mandatory evacuation of the rest of the city as of noon Sunday. They will be loading up anyone who needs free transportation out of town until midnight tonight and then they will resume free evacuation at 6 a.m. Sunday until noon Sunday. Right now the traffic heading out of New Orleans in all directions is moving extremely slowly (5-10 mph in most locations). I have no idea why some people are heading west but they certainly are. I guess they're headed for Houston or points west of Houston.

The 11 p.m. Saturday advisory has moved the landfall point just slightly to the east, maybe by 10 miles or so. The storm is projected to have winds of 150 mph at 8 a.m. Monday and 140 mph at 8 p.m. Monday after it is well inland. Gusts will run 175-185 mph. A lot depends on the two different highs that are in play here One is sitting over the southeast and the other is approaching from the northwest. This storm's path could still be steered more to the west before landfall. None of the computer models call for it to move more to the east.

The 7 a.m. CDT Sunday advisory has Gustav as currently a Category 3 storm but it is expected to restrengthen to Category 4 later today. Storm surge of 18-25 feet above normal is expected ahead of and to the east of the storm. The projected landfall hasn't changed much. It's still projected to approach very close to the mouth of the Mississippi River and then move in a northwesterly direction while its right side pushes the Gulf of Mexico upriver. The ultimate worst case scenario would be for the storm to ride the westbank of the river upstream so that the river level rises enough to overflow its levees. Hurricane Betsy in 1965 caused the river to rise by 10 feet at New Orleans. This storm, if it approaches from the worse possible direction, could cause it to rise a lot more than that. Right now, as a Category 3, Gustav's hurricane force winds extend out only 50 miles from the center but its tropical storm force winds extend out 200 miles. It is expected to become a Cat. 4 storm later today.

The 10 a.m. CDT Sunday advisory maintains the same track. Gustav is currently a Category 3 hurricane but it is projected to intensify to a Category 4 sometime today or tonight. It is expected to be a Category 4 at landfall sometime Monday morning.

The 4 p.m. CDT Sunday advisory has moved the projected landfall just ever so slightly westward and it has reduced the projected intensity. Right now they are predicting 125 mph winds at 1 a.m. Monday and 115 mph winds at 1 p.m. Monday, just after landfall. Winds at landfall are predicted to be approximately 120 mph. That's a big improvement over the 145 mph winds at landfall that they were predicting just last night. The 7 a.m. advisory Sunday morning was still predicting storm surge of 18-25 feet ahead of and just east of the storm and that has now been cut back drastically. They are now predicting storm surge of 10-14 feet above normal tidal levels. The difference is that 18-25 feet would overtop virtually all of the levees in and around New Orleans and 10-14 feet would not. Right now hurricane force winds extend out 65 miles and tropical storm force winds extend out 220 miles from the center. At 4 p.m. CDT Sunday the eye of the storm was located 215 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and the storm was racing ahead towards the northwest at 18 mph.

The 10 p.m. CDT Sunday advisory is virtually unchanged as far as landfall location is concerned. Current localtion is 220 miles southeast of New Orleans and the hurricane is morning northwest at 16 mph.

The 10 a.m. CDT Monday advisory:
At 1000 Am Cdt...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Gustav Was Located
Near Latitude 29.2 North...longitude 90.8 West Or Over The Louisiana
Coast Just West-southwest Of Cocodrie Louisiana. This Position Is
Also About About 70 Miles...110 Km...southwest Of New Orleans
Louisiana And About 100 Miles...160 Km...southeast Of Lafayette
Louisiana.

Gustav Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 15 Mph...24 Km/hr...and
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With A Decrease In The
Forward Speed During The Next Couple Of Days. On The Forecast
Track...the Center Of Gustav Will Track Along The South Central
Louisiana Coast This Afternoon...then Move Into Western Louisiana
Tonight And Eastern Texas On Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 110 Mph...175 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Gustav Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Weakening Is Forecast As The Center Of Gustav Moves Inland
Over Louisiana.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200
Miles...325 Km.

I think I'll add the Weather Underground's chart of six different computer models.

As you can see, they vary quite a bit. There are at least three more computer models that diverge even more than these with one actually showing landfall on the Yucatan.

As of 11 p.m., Thursday, the computer models have all shifted more to the west with one showing the storm heading for the Yucatan, one showing it heading for the middle of the Texas Gulf Coast and two showing landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border. Only one model shows landfall east of New Orleans and that one is predicting landfall at Bay St. Louis, MS.

As of 8 a.m., Friday all six computer models have the storm passing over the western tip of Cuba. That's a first. The one that had it heading for the Yucatan last night has now shifted completely and now agrees with the other five computer models about it striking Cuba. The blue line is now predicting landfall at Bay St. Louis, MS. The purple line passes inland over Grand Isle, LA. The red line moves inland about 35 miles west of the purple line. The yellow line makes landfall over Galveston, TX. The black line hits Texas two-thirds of the way down the coast and the white line turns around and appears to be headed for Mexico. It will be interesting to see how these computer models change over the next couple of days.

As of 2 p.m., Friday only the blue computer model shows landfall anywhere near New Orleans. The other five models have all shifted to the west. We don't pay attention to any of these models because we go by the official NHC projections. Those projections will get more and more specific after the storm gets past Cuba. People in Houston are probably freaking out right now when they look at this chart. Two computer models show a direct hit on Houston.

As of 8 p.m., Friday four of the six computer models show landfall fairly close to the NHC projection near Morgan City, LA. The purple computer model has the hurricane hitting land at the Louisiana-Texas border and then doing a U-turn and heading back out into the Gulf. The white line now hits halfway down the Texas coast. Some of these computer models are jumping all over the place.

As of 11 a.m. Saturday all six computer models are in agreement on the path of Hurricane Gustav except that the purple line and the white line show it turning around and heading south just before it hits the Louisiana coast.

As of 2 p.m. Saturday all six computer models show landfall very close together and very close to the NHC's projection.

As of 11 p.m. EDT Saturday five of the six computers models have shifted the projected landfall more to the east. Just a day or so ago they were mostly predicting landfall over Vermillion Bay but they're now a good 70 to 80 miles east of there. They're moving in the wrong direction.

As of 7 a.m. CDT Sunday the most interesting thing about the computer models is that the blue line (GFDL model) that had been showing landfall to the east of the other five models has moved to the west and is now projecting landfall over Vermillion Bay. Those computer models were initiated at 2 a.m. Sunday. I will be very interested in seeing their next projected positions. The GFDL model is considered one of the most trustworthy according to one of the local TV anchors. I sure hope he's right and it's right. That slight movement to the west could make all the difference in the world to the future of the metropolitan New Orleans area.

As of 10 a.m. CDT Sunday four of the six computer models are predicting landfall to the west of the official NHC's projected path. Two of the models agree with the NHC projection.

As of 4 p.m. CDT Sunday all six computer models are predicting landfall west of the official NHC's projected path and the blue line, the GFDL model, has shifted landfall west of Vermillion Bay. Let's hope the GFDL model is correct. And let's hope the intensity falls some more.

As of 10 p.m. CDT Sunday two computer models (black & blue) show landfall over Vermillion Bay. The red, white and purple models show landfall about where the NHC is projecting it except that the red model shows the storm continuing northwest in a straight line all the way to Shreveport. The yellow computer model shows landfall at the Louisiana-Texas border.

[Ninong]

Current NOAA forecasts call for Hurricane Gustav to reach Category 3 strength by 2 p.m. Friday afternoon.

If it continues on its present course, it is expected to make landfall by next Monday or Tuesday somewhere along the Louisiana coast as a Cat. 3 or 4 storm.

[zhenya]

Crud! Enough already with the weather punishing Louisiana.

[Lucid]

Yikes! kinda like there is a bullseye on LA! that is how I feel sometimes where I live.

[Reefland]

Who's got the latest forecast?

[Ninong]

The forecast that was just released moves the predicted landfall a little more to the east and it speeds up the estimated arrival, which was previously forecast for early Tuesday morning. It looks like they're now predicting landfall sometime late Monday morning.

[Ninong]

Who's got the latest forecast?

Scott,

Both of the graphics that I posted in the very first post automatically update themselves with the latest forecast. This one is dated 11 a.m. EDT.

[Ninong]

Here's the written forecast.

[Ninong]

Zoom in on this world map and then click on a particular buoy to get air temps, surface water temps, wave height, wind speed, wind direction, etc. Surface water temps in the Gulf of Mexico right now are in the mid to upper 80's. A hurricane needs surface water temps of 81 F and above.

Surface water temps in the Gulf of Mexico peak in late August/early September. Hurricane Katrina was August 29, 2005. Hurricane Camille was August 18, 1969. Hurricane Betsy was September 9, 1965.

[Reefland]

Last night they were saying on the weather channel that the storm was going to remain small in overall size. With a track more to the east this could be a good thing for LA.

[Ninong]

They keep changing their minds. Yesterday they warned us officially that it would probably become a Category 3 and possibly a Category 4 and that it would probably make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast either late Monday or early Tuesday. In fact, an article posted online by NBC at 8 a.m. this morning included a reference to the prediction that it might become a Cat. 4 hurricane. They have since deleted that phrase and now they're simply predicting Cat. 3.

Those cones that you see in the first graphic represent the area of probability. The center of that area is the projected landfall but that point can change every time they come out with a new forecast. The second graphic -- the one with the circles -- is the same thing but it uses circles with the center of each circle representing the geographic center of the area of possibility. The storm could end up anywhere within that circle at that particular point in time according to their projections. Both of those graphics will automatically refresh themselves every time a new forecast comes out. That's why I have them in the opening post of this thread.

Check out this animated satellite image (click on Animate). (UTC is four hours ahead of EDT, five hours ahead of CDT.) Notice that the actual eye of the storm is skirting just south of Haiti and not actually passing over land. It's moving extremely slowly right now, 4 mph. Sustained winds are only 60 mph with gusts to 70 mph, so it's a tropical storm at this point.

P.S. -- Both of those graphics in the opening post are based on official Hurricane Center forecasts but the one from the Weather Underground is more colorful and it actually gives the predicted category at each point in time, which is something the plain NOAA graphic does not provide. It's predicted to pass over the far western tip of Cuba Saturday morning as a Cat. 3. The forecast last night called for it to skirt just to the west of Cuba without the eye making landfall there. The official definition of landfall is when the geographic center of the eye of the storm makes contact with land. If the center of the eye of the storm does not make contact with land, then you don't have landfall. And the exact official time of landfall is when the center of the eye makes contact, not when the eyewall makes contact.

[Reefland]

How far inland are you located now?

[Ninong]

How far inland are you located now?

That depends on your definition of "inland." Lake Ponchartrain is an open part of the Gulf of Mexico but it is somewhat brackish due to freshwater runoff. It will rise with the storm surge when the Gulf rises and it is subject to potential catastropic flooding if the winds of a hurricane push it over the shore in any particular direction.

If you look at the first map in the opening post, you will notice they show Lake Ponchartrain. That little bubble of water to the west of Lake Ponchartrain is Lake Maurepas. It's connected to Lake Ponchartrain. Lake Maurepas is about 10 miles across. Lake Ponchartrain is about 40 miles by 25 miles. I live about six miles due north of Lake Maurepas. So even though I'm quite a distance from the actual coast of Louisiana (which is mostly marsh anyway), I only six miles from water that is connected to the Gulf of Mexico and subject to rise when the Gulf rises. The actual Gulf of Mexico is about 65 miles to my southeast and about 90 miles due south.

[Ninong]

If the eye of the storm actually passed directly over your location, you will get winds from the east, then complete calm, and then winds from the west, assuming the storm is coming at you from the south and moving due north. If it's passing over you from the east, moving west, then your winds would be out of the north, followed by calm during the eye and then winds from the south. Given a choice, you would rather be west of the eye and not east of it, assuming it's moving north or northeast. Of course a direct hit, with the eye passing over you, is the worst possible scenario.

The strongest winds are in the eyewall and as you extend out from the eyewall, the winds are less strong. There is a tremendous difference in potential damage between say 140 mph winds and 115 mph winds. And a direct hit with a Cat 5 (over 155 mph) will wipe out just about all homes. A storm surge from a Cat. 3 and above will usually wipe out all homes within two or three blocks from the coast. The storm surge from Hurricane Katrina extended at least 10 miles inland along the Mississippi Gulf Coast and it completely destroyed homes for the first three or four blocks from the coastline. It actually extended all the way to I-10. A 20-ft storm surge is not something most homes can survive.

[Ninong]

Hurricane Katrina

Katrina was a Cat. 5 with sustained winds of 175 mph at 1 p.m. on August 28. Then it dropped to Cat. 4 overnight and made landfall in Buras, Louisiana as a Cat. 3 (125 mph sustained winds) at 6:10 a.m. on August 29. That's only 6 mph less than a Cat. 4.

The three circles in the middle of the Gulf that are the darkest orange represent Category 5. Then there is one lighter orange circle just before landfall and that's a Cat. 4. Then it drops to Cat. 3 just as it makes landfall. If it had made landfall as a Cat. 5, the damage would have been much, much worse than it actually was. And if the eye had passed just west of New Orleans instead of just east of the city, the damage would have been much worse.

[Ninong]

Photos documenting the storm surge from Katrina. The Holiday Inn in Gulfport is located 250 yards inland from the beach. The surge reached the bottom of the second floor. It was estimated at 28-29 feet at Gulfport Beach.

The Holiday Inn buildng sits at an elevation of 19 feet. The water in the building was 9-10 feet. Scroll down for photos.

[Ninong]

Hurricane Camille, which struck the southeastern tip of Louisiana the night of August 17 and then Bay St. Louis, Mississippi the morning of August 18, was a Cat. 5 storm with measured sustained winds of 190 mph but the hurricane hunter aircraft were unable to take measurements after that. Official estimated maximum sustained winds were 205 mph while it was still in the Gulf. It made landfall as either a Cat. 4 or a Cat. 5. Some gusts were measured above 160 mph along the Mississippi Gulf coast but just about all of their instruments were destroyed so nobody knows for sure what the actual intensity was when it hit Mississippi but it was definitely still a Cat. 5 when it made first landfall, passing over the southeastern tip of Louisiana. Camille was a tight but very intense storm. It had extremely high winds near the eye but the winds dropped off from the eyewall and didn't extend as far as most hurricanes. We had maximum winds of only about 95 mph in New Orleans even though we were only about 55 miles west of the eyewall. Camille's eyewall passed about 35 miles east of the eastern edge of New Orleans.



This graph shows it as a Cat. 5 when it passes over southeastern Louisiana just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River and then as a Cat. 3 inland in Mississippi. It was definitely at least a Cat. 4 when it struck the beach in Bay St. Louis but all of their instruments were destroyed.

[Ninong]

Hurricane Betsy, Sept. 9, 1965



This one was a strong Cat. 4 with maximum sustained winds measured at 155 mph (1 mph less than a Cat. 5) the day before it made landfall at Grand Isle, La. It was a Cat. 3 when it passed just to the southwest of New Orleans. This graph shows it as a Cat. 4 just before landfall and then as a Cat. 2 further inland. It was a Cat. 3 in between those measurements and sustained winds were measured at 115 mph (Cat. 3) in New Orleans with gusts much higher than that. I was there at the time. In fact, I was there for Betsy, Camille and Katrina, plus more than a dozen before them. (I was in California 1977-1998.)

One thing that I remember distinctly from Hurricane Betsy was that the Mississippi River at New Orleans rose 10-ft and it was bright blue. The Gulf of Mexico was driven upstream causing the river to flow backwards. That was all saltwater that made the river blue.

[Ninong]

"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure where it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm. At that point, we're expecting it to be a Category 3 hurricane." -- 1 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, August 27.

[Ninong]

The 8 a.m., Thursday prediction moved the projected landfall about another 80 miles to the west, changed the expected date of arrival back to Tuesday morning and changed the intensity back to Category 3. Tuesday morning was the original prediction but then it gradually changed to Monday morning and then Monday night. Now we're back to Tuesday morning but with the projected landfall near Morgan City. Instead of 110 mph, they have moved the wind speed projection back to 115 mph (125 mph was the worst they had predicted at one point yesterday). Category 3 is a wind speed of 111-130 mph.

We're really too far out for an accurate landfall prediction. Once the storm clears both Cuba on the east and the Yucatan on the west and enters the Gulf, then their landfall predictions become a lot more accurate. The various computer models are all over the place right now with one model predicting landfall on the Yucatan and another predicting landfall on the Florida panhandle and the intensity varies widely between the models. The HWRF model (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting, developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Navy, University of Rhode Island and Florida State University), which the National Hurricane Center forecast most closely follows, actually predicts Gustav will be a more dangerous Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 135 mph just before landfall.